2025 season · final
Detroit Lions, 2025: game by game
The Lions went 9–8 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.5 wins. Luck cost them 1.5: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.
Every game
How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Packers | L 13–27 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 2 | vs Bears | W 52–21 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ Ravens | W 38–30 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 4 | vs Browns | W 34–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 5 | @ Bengals | W 37–24 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 6 | @ Chiefs | L 17–30 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 7 | vs Buccaneers | W 24–9 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 9 | vs Vikings | L 24–27 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 10 | @ Commanders | W 44–22 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 11 | @ Eagles | L 9–16 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 12 | vs Giants | W 34–27 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 13 | vs Packers | L 24–31 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 14 | vs Cowboys | W 44–30 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 15 | @ Rams | L 34–41 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 16 | vs Steelers | L 24–29 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 17 | @ Vikings | L 10–23 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 18 | @ Bears | W 19–16 | 80% | +20 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Rest | +0.07 | +2.6 |
| Injuries | −0.08 | −1.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.10 | −2.9 |
| Drops | −0.21 | −15.8 |
| Kicks | −0.25 | −16.9 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.65 | −28.5 |
| Judgment calls | −0.90 | −13.5 |