luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Lions at Rams, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Lions 41–34, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:53 left): the Lions converted 3rd & 8, worth 13 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 34
Los Angeles Rams 41

December 14, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −5.5

Luck index +16 Rams about even · −16 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 DET 30 LA 19
  2. 2 DET 33 LA 30
  3. 3 DET 46 LA 48
  4. 4 DET 20 LA 24
  5. 5 DET 38 LA 45
  6. 6 DET 27 LA 38
  7. 7 DET 43 LA 58
  8. 8 DET 27 LA 45
  9. 9 DET 27 LA 50
  10. 10 DET 6 LA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 16% of them, Rams 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+1.5%
Lions by 9–163.5%
Lions by 1–89.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
Rams by 1–820.7%
Rams by 9–1621.3%
Rams by 17+42.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 3.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 43 yds missed · 86% expected
  • J. Bates, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Mevis, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • H. Mevis, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Bates, 48 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:16 J. Bates missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +11% LA DET: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:14 The Rams converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:53 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +13% DET DET: Field goal
4 Q2 2:00 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:04 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
6 Q3 11:14 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% LA LA: Field goal
7 Q3 8:33 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Giovanni Ricci), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 984 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +8% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:34 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% DET DET: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Quentin Lake (LA S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Thomas Harper (DET S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kayode Awosika (DET G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brock Wright (DET TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Mahogany (DET OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 60% · Rams 40%

Final margin
Rams by 7
Luck in points
10.0 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Lions 16% · Rams 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Lions · Rams

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