luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Jets at Jaguars, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Jets 48–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.0 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 84% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 48

December 14, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −13.5

Luck index +3 Jaguars about even · −3 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Jaguars win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 17 JAX 20
  2. 2 NYJ 20 JAX 27
  3. 3 NYJ 15 JAX 26
  4. 4 NYJ 20 JAX 33
  5. 5 NYJ 17 JAX 33
  6. 6 NYJ 17 JAX 36
  7. 7 NYJ 3 JAX 26
  8. 8 NYJ 13 JAX 39
  9. 9 NYJ 13 JAX 44
  10. 10 NYJ 7 JAX 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 3% of them, Jaguars 97%. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.1%
Jets by 9–160.4%
Jets by 1–81.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Jaguars by 1–86.0%
Jaguars by 9–1614.5%
Jaguars by 17+76.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 31.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Little, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Little, 22 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:49 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +8% JAX NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:40 B. Strange dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 79 catchable balls before this +3% NYJ JAX: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:35 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:06 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:53 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedA. Mitchell dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 53 catchable balls before this +3% JAX NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 9:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Isaiah Davis), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 800 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +3% JAX JAX: Field goal
7 Q2 2:45 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
8 Q2 1:13 The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% JAX NYJ: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Travis Hunter (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Walker Little (JAX OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Hunter Long (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Justin Fields (NYJ QB), out, replaced by b.cook · 1.4 pts
  • Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andre Cisco (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mason Taylor (NYJ TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azareye'h Thomas (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 28
Luck in points
3.3 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 31.3
Replay with same day's form
Jets 3% · Jaguars 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Jets · Jaguars

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