luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Jets at Jaguars, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Jets 48–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 84% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 48

December 14, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −13.5

Luck index +1 Jaguars about even · −1 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Jaguars win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 31 JAX 34
  2. 2 NYJ 17 JAX 26
  3. 3 NYJ 17 JAX 30
  4. 4 NYJ 6 JAX 23
  5. 5 NYJ 17 JAX 37
  6. 6 NYJ 9 JAX 32
  7. 7 NYJ 3 JAX 29
  8. 8 NYJ 6 JAX 35
  9. 9 NYJ 7 JAX 41
  10. 10 NYJ 21 JAX 63

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 1% of them, Jaguars 99%. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.0%
Jets by 9–160.1%
Jets by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.2%
Jaguars by 1–82.3%
Jaguars by 9–169.6%
Jaguars by 17+87.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jaguars by 28, without the luck Jaguars by 29.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Little, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. Little, 22 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 6 for 44 yards, Jaguars 5 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 4 yards 0% JAX +0.2 pts
Q2 9:59 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 6 yards +1% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q2 9:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Isaiah Davis), 15 yards +3% JAX +1.4 pts
Q2 8:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Greg Newsome II), 15 yards +2% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q2 5:03 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Jets (Austin McNamara), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX 0.0 pts
Q2 1:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Brian Thomas), 14 yards +2% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q2 1:07 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q2 0:59 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Qwan'tez Stiggers), 5 yards 0% JAX +0.2 pts
Q3 7:01 Disqualification on the Jets (Khalen Saunders), 15 yards 0% JAX +1.4 pts
Q3 1:11 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q3 0:12 Taunting on the Jaguars (Maason Smith), 15 yards 0% NYJ +1.6 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:49 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% JAX NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:40 B. Strange dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 79 catchable balls before this +3% NYJ JAX: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:35 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +4% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:06 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +2% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets (Isaiah Davis), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 800 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +3% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q2 8:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Greg Newsome II), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 3816 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +2% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
7 Q2 2:45 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% JAX JAX: Field goal
8 Q2 1:13 The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +3% JAX NYJ: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Travis Hunter (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Walker Little (JAX OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Hunter Long (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Justin Fields (NYJ QB), out, replaced by b.cook · 1.4 pts
  • Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andre Cisco (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mason Taylor (NYJ TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Azareye'h Thomas (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 28
Luck in points
1.9 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 29.9
Replay with same day's form
Jets 1% · Jaguars 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Jets · Jaguars

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