luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Panthers at Saints, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 20–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:17 left): T. McMillan dropped a catchable pass, worth 15 points of win probability to the Saints. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:12 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Lathan Ransom), 15 yards.

Final

Carolina Panthers 17
New Orleans Saints 20

December 14, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Panthers −2.5

Luck index +29 Saints lucky · −29 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Saints win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 24 NO 9
  2. 2 CAR 10 NO 3
  3. 3 CAR 23 NO 21
  4. 4 CAR 7 NO 9
  5. 5 CAR 20 NO 24
  6. 6 CAR 6 NO 13
  7. 7 CAR 14 NO 23
  8. 8 CAR 19 NO 31
  9. 9 CAR 3 NO 19
  10. 10 CAR 7 NO 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 29% of them, Saints 71%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+2.5%
Panthers by 9–166.8%
Panthers by 1–815.4%
Level after regulation5.1%
Saints by 1–828.3%
Saints by 9–1623.8%
Saints by 17+18.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 3, without the luck Panthers by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Fitzgerald, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Smyth, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Smyth, 47 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 11 for 103 yards, Saints 9 for 78 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:07 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.6 pts
Q1 1:28 Low Block on the Saints (Jordan Howden), 15 yards +5% CAR +1.8 pts
Q1 1:08 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers, 15 yards +4% NO +1.4 pts
Q2 12:54 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 12:28 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (A'Shawn Robinson), 15 yards +4% NO +1.8 pts
Q2 10:51 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (Bobby Brown), 5 yards +3% NO +1.2 pts
Q2 9:20 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 10 yards +2% CAR +1.1 pts
Q2 8:17 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.3 pts
Q3 10:33 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NO +1.5 pts
Q3 5:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 15 yards +8% NO +1.3 pts
Q3 5:00 Taunting on the Saints, 15 yards +5% CAR +1.4 pts
Q3 4:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 8 yards +6% NO +1.5 pts
Q3 1:56 Illegal Formation on the Panthers (Brycen Tremayne), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.5 pts
Q3 1:03 False Start on the Panthers (Mitchell Evans), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.5 pts
Q4 10:56 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (LaBryan Ray), 5 yards +1% NO +0.3 pts
Q4 9:18 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 7:03 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Chau Smith-Wade), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% NO +1.1 pts
Q4 3:26 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play +15% CAR +1.9 pts
Q4 1:04 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Jordan Howden), 8 yards +5% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 0:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Lathan Ransom), 15 yards +24% NO +1.7 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:18 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +12% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q4 6:59 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +14% CAR NO: Touchdown
3 Q4 3:26 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q4 2:33 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +12% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:17 The game turned hereT. McMillan dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 65 catchable balls before this +15% NO CAR: Punt
6 Q4 2:12 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% CAR CAR: Punt
7 Q4 0:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Lathan Ransom), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 407 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +24% NO NO: Field goal
8 Q4 0:06 C. Smyth made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +10% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Reid (NO S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (CAR DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Krys Barnes (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 74% · Saints 26%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
5.1 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 29% · Saints 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Panthers · Saints

More from Week 15 2025