luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Panthers at Saints, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Panthers 20–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.0 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:12 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Lathan Ransom), 15 yards, worth 24 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Carolina Panthers 17
New Orleans Saints 20

December 14, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Panthers −2.5

Luck index +33 Saints lucky · −33 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Saints win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 27 NO 12
  2. 2 CAR 21 NO 13
  3. 3 CAR 13 NO 10
  4. 4 CAR 17 NO 19
  5. 5 CAR 17 NO 21
  6. 6 CAR 16 NO 23
  7. 7 CAR 15 NO 25
  8. 8 CAR 14 NO 26
  9. 9 CAR 0 NO 16
  10. 10 CAR 3 NO 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 33% of them, Saints 67%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+3.1%
Panthers by 9–168.7%
Panthers by 1–820.6%
Level after regulation2.1%
Saints by 1–829.8%
Saints by 9–1622.1%
Saints by 17+13.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 2.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Fitzgerald, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Smyth, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Smyth, 47 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:18 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +13% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q3 13:29 The Panthers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +11% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q4 6:59 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +14% CAR NO: Touchdown
4 Q4 3:26 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q4 2:33 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +19% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:17 T. McMillan dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 65 catchable balls before this +18% NO CAR: Punt
7 Q4 2:12 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% CAR CAR: Punt
8 Q4 0:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Lathan Ransom), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 407 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +24% NO NO: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Justin Reid (NO S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (CAR DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Krys Barnes (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 72% · Saints 28%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
5.7 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 33% · Saints 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Panthers · Saints

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