2025 season · final
New Orleans Saints, 2025: game by game
The Saints went 6–11 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.3 wins. Luck cost them 1.3: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.
Every game
How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Cardinals | L 13–20 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 2 | vs 49ers | L 21–26 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 3 | @ Seahawks | L 13–44 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 4 | @ Bills | L 19–31 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 5 | vs Giants | W 26–14 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 6 | vs Patriots | L 19–25 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 7 | @ Bears | L 14–26 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 8 | vs Buccaneers | L 3–23 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 9 | @ Rams | L 10–34 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 10 | @ Panthers | W 17–7 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 12 | vs Falcons | L 10–24 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 13 | @ Dolphins | L 17–21 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 14 | @ Buccaneers | W 24–20 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 15 | vs Panthers | W 20–17 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 16 | vs Jets | W 29–6 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 17 | @ Titans | W 34–26 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 18 | @ Falcons | L 17–19 | 71% | −71 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.21 | +8.1 |
| Rest | −0.04 | −2.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.09 | +0.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.30 | −2.6 |
| Drops | −0.42 | −3.4 |
| Kicks | −0.95 | −32.9 |