luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Patriots at Saints, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Saints 25–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.2 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:15 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 26 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New England Patriots 25
New Orleans Saints 19

October 12, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Patriots −3.5

Luck index +27 Patriots lucky · −27 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 NE 33 NO 7
  2. 2 NE 23 NO 5
  3. 3 NE 31 NO 17
  4. 4 NE 30 NO 19
  5. 5 NE 20 NO 13
  6. 6 NE 21 NO 17
  7. 7 NE 12 NO 10
  8. 8 NE 14 NO 17
  9. 9 NE 10 NO 17
  10. 10 NE 7 NO 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 73% of them, Saints 27%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+23.0%
Patriots by 9–1622.5%
Patriots by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation4.9%
Saints by 1–815.4%
Saints by 9–166.5%
Saints by 17+2.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 6.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. Grupe, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • B. Grupe, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • A. Borregales, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Grupe, 54 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:11 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:32 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 18 flags in 5719 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +24% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Quincy Riley), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 149 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +11% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:54 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NO NE: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:40 The Patriots converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% NE NE: Punt
6 Q4 10:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 18 flags in 5719 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +26% NO NO: Turnover
7 Q4 4:08 C. Olave dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 261 catchable balls before this +12% NE NO: Punt
8 Q4 2:40 The Patriots converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% NE NE: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ugo Amadi (NO FS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaylinn Hawkins (NE S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Keion White (NE DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jaylinn Hawkins (NE FS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 66% · Saints 34%

Final margin
Patriots by 6
Luck in points
0.1 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 73% · Saints 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Patriots · Saints

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