luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Bengals at Packers, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Bengals 27–18, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:51 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 21 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 18
Green Bay Packers 27

October 12, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −14

Luck index +3 Packers about even · −3 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 0, Packers win 10.

  1. 1 CIN 17 GB 20
  2. 2 CIN 10 GB 16
  3. 3 CIN 21 GB 30
  4. 4 CIN 16 GB 27
  5. 5 CIN 9 GB 23
  6. 6 CIN 24 GB 41
  7. 7 CIN 17 GB 37
  8. 8 CIN 9 GB 31
  9. 9 CIN 0 GB 27
  10. 10 CIN 7 GB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 3% of them, Packers 97%. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.1%
Bengals by 9–160.6%
Bengals by 1–82.6%
Level after regulation0.4%
Packers by 1–812.4%
Packers by 9–1619.9%
Packers by 17+64.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 7.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Havrisik, 43 yds made · 79% expected
  • E. McPherson, 67 yds missed · 45% expected
  • E. McPherson, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • E. McPherson, 56 yds missed · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:37 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +10% GB GB: Turnover
2 Q1 10:51 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +7% GB GB: Turnover
3 Q1 8:51 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +21% CIN GB: Field goal
4 Q2 10:57 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +7% CIN GB: Punt
5 Q2 6:53 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:46 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q3 4:50 The Bengals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:51 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedA. Iosivas dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 74 catchable balls before this +10% GB CIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayden Reed (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon McManus (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Belton (GB T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.flacco · 6.1 pts
  • Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dylan Fairchild (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 50% · Packers 50%

Final margin
Packers by 9
Luck in points
16.2 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 7.2
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 3% · Packers 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Bengals · Packers

More from Week 6 2025