luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Bengals at Packers, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Bengals 27–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:37 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 7, worth 10 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 18
Green Bay Packers 27

October 12, 2025 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −14

Luck index +7 Packers about even · −7 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 26 GB 21
  2. 2 CIN 23 GB 25
  3. 3 CIN 24 GB 28
  4. 4 CIN 34 GB 41
  5. 5 CIN 17 GB 27
  6. 6 CIN 17 GB 30
  7. 7 CIN 26 GB 40
  8. 8 CIN 20 GB 38
  9. 9 CIN 3 GB 27
  10. 10 CIN 7 GB 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 7% of them, Packers 93%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.3%
Bengals by 9–161.3%
Bengals by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation1.6%
Packers by 1–819.0%
Packers by 9–1625.4%
Packers by 17+46.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.0 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 9, without the luck Bengals by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Havrisik, 43 yds made · 80% expected
  • E. McPherson, 67 yds missed · 19% expected
  • E. McPherson, 45 yds made · 78% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • E. McPherson, 56 yds missed · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 3 for 17 yards, Packers 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:46 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Bo Melton), 4 yards +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q2 4:14 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 3 yards +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q2 4:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Ty'Ron Hopper), 15 yards +2% CIN +1.2 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Cameron Sample), 10 yards 0% GB +0.9 pts
Q3 12:21 Illegal Contact on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% GB +0.2 pts
Q3 8:31 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.3 pts
Q3 7:37 False Start on the Bengals (Noah Fant), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.5 pts
Q4 5:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 11 yards +1% CIN +0.7 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:37 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +10% GB GB: Turnover
2 Q1 10:51 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +5% GB GB: Turnover
3 Q1 8:51 The Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +4% CIN GB: Field goal
4 Q2 10:57 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +7% CIN GB: Punt
5 Q2 6:53 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:46 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q3 4:50 The Bengals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:51 A. Iosivas dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 74 catchable balls before this +10% GB CIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayden Reed (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon McManus (GB K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Belton (GB T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.flacco · 6.1 pts
  • Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dylan Fairchild (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 37% · Packers 63%

Final margin
Packers by 9
Luck in points
13.0 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 7% · Packers 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Bengals · Packers

More from Week 6 2025