luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Lions at Chiefs, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Lions 30–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:46 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 15 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Detroit Lions 17
Kansas City Chiefs 30

October 12, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −2.5

Luck index +36 Chiefs lucky · −36 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 4, Chiefs win 6.

  1. 1 DET 31 KC 13
  2. 2 DET 31 KC 21
  3. 3 DET 19 KC 13
  4. 4 DET 20 KC 17
  5. 5 DET 14 KC 16
  6. 6 DET 34 KC 38
  7. 7 DET 20 KC 27
  8. 8 DET 17 KC 28
  9. 9 DET 3 KC 17
  10. 10 DET 10 KC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 36% of them, Chiefs 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+3.8%
Lions by 9–168.8%
Lions by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation2.4%
Chiefs by 1–828.0%
Chiefs by 9–1620.5%
Chiefs by 17+14.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 4.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • H. Butker, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:28 Illegal Motion on the Lions (Jared Goff), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 8 flags in 7164 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +12% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:14 The Chiefs converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:56 The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:14 The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +8% KC KC: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 8:22 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% KC KC: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 7:01 The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +11% DET KC: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:46 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedA. St. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 436 catchable balls before this +15% KC DET: Punt
8 Q2 1:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 3696 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Simmons (KC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Terrion Arnold (DET CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • D.J. Reed (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 8% · Chiefs 92%

Final margin
Chiefs by 13
Luck in points
8.5 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Lions 36% · Chiefs 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Lions · Chiefs

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