luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Titans at Raiders, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Titans 20–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:12 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 16 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Tennessee Titans 10
Las Vegas Raiders 20

October 12, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3.5

Luck index +7 Raiders about even · −7 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 7 LV 3
  2. 2 TEN 18 LV 20
  3. 3 TEN 17 LV 23
  4. 4 TEN 10 LV 19
  5. 5 TEN 20 LV 31
  6. 6 TEN 0 LV 13
  7. 7 TEN 6 LV 22
  8. 8 TEN 17 LV 37
  9. 9 TEN 0 LV 23
  10. 10 TEN 0 LV 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 7% of them, Raiders 93%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.2%
Titans by 9–161.5%
Titans by 1–84.8%
Level after regulation1.7%
Raiders by 1–816.2%
Raiders by 9–1623.4%
Raiders by 17+52.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 5.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 50 yds made · 76% expected
  • M. Wright, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • D. Carlson, 29 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:55 The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% LV LV: Field goal
2 Q1 5:11 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% TEN LV: Field goal
3 Q1 2:51 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q2 9:45 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Jalyn Armour-Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 628 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +9% LV LV: Punt
5 Q2 6:12 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% LV TEN: Punt
6 Q2 5:18 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:16 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% LV TEN: Field goal
8 Q3 11:48 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +4% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brock Bowers (LV TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Mike Brown (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joey Slye (TEN K), out · 0.3 pts
  • T'Vondre Sweat (TEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Arden Key (TEN LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 28% · Raiders 72%

Final margin
Raiders by 10
Luck in points
4.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Titans 7% · Raiders 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Titans · Raiders

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