Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025
Titans at Raiders, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Titans 20–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Titans: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Raiders were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:45 left): Illegal Contact on the Titans (Jalyn Armour-Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 10 |
|---|---|
 Las Vegas Raiders | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Raiders about even · −6 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 1, Raiders win 9.
- 1 TEN 23 LV 17
- 2 TEN 24 LV 26
- 3 TEN 9 LV 14
- 4 TEN 17 LV 24
- 5 TEN 7 LV 17
- 6 TEN 6 LV 19
- 7 TEN 0 LV 16
- 8 TEN 10 LV 30
- 9 TEN 10 LV 33
- 10 TEN 0 LV 33
Your call
Did the Raiders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Titans
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.17 | +0.00 | worse by 0.17 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.13 | better by 0.27 |
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.03 | worse by 0.17 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.17 | +0.10 | better by 0.27 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 6% of them, Raiders 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 4.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 15.5% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 22.1% |
| Raiders by 17+ | 55.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 50 yds made · 74% expected
- M. Wright, 46 yds made · 82% expected
- D. Carlson, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Titans 7 for 34 yards, Raiders 6 for 27 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:26 | Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:45 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:07 | Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jihad Ward), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% TEN 0.0 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | Illegal Contact on the Titans (Jalyn Armour-Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +9% LV +3.3 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 11:13 | Defensive Holding on the Titans (James Lynch), 5 yards | +1% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:28 | Face Mask on the Titans (Dre'Mont Jones), 4 yards, wiping out the play | +4% LV +1.4 pts |
| Q3 4:07 | Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV 0.0 pts |
| Q3 2:15 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV +0.5 pts |
| Q4 10:42 | False Start on the Raiders (Ashton Jeanty), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:24 | Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jihad Ward), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:11 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Eric Stokes), 3 yards | 0% TEN +3.5 pts |
| Q4 2:45 | Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.4 pts |
Titans penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Raiders’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:55 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +8% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 5:11 | The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% TEN | LV: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 2:51 | The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% TEN | TEN: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 9:45 | Illegal Contact on the Titans (Jalyn Armour-Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 628 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +9% LV | LV: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 6:12 | The Titans fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% LV | TEN: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 5:18 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 0:16 | The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +4% LV | TEN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 7:28 | Face Mask on the Titans (Dre'Mont Jones), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 23 flags in 4269 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +4% LV | LV: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brock Bowers (LV TE), out · 1.0 pts
- Kolton Miller (LV T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Mike Brown (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Joey Slye (TEN K), out · 0.3 pts
- T'Vondre Sweat (TEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Arden Key (TEN LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 24% · Raiders 76%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 10
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 4.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 6% · Raiders 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Titans · 
Raiders
More from Week 6 2025
- Eagles at Giants NYG 34–17 · replay 83% for the winner
- Broncos vs Jets DEN 13–11 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cardinals at Colts IND 31–27 · replay 85% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 23–9 · replay 98% for the winner
- Cowboys at Panthers CAR 30–27 · replay 74% for the winner
- Chargers at Dolphins LAC 29–27 · replay 73% for the winner
- Rams at Ravens LA 17–3 · replay 83% for the winner
- Patriots at Saints NE 25–19 · replay 85% for the winner
- Seahawks at Jaguars SEA 20–12 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bengals at Packers GB 27–18 · replay 93% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers TB 30–19 · replay 80% for the winner
- Lions at Chiefs KC 30–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bills at Falcons ATL 24–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Bears at Commanders CHI 25–24 · replay 35% for the winner