luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Chargers at Dolphins, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Dolphins 29–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 6.9 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:05 left): the Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 40 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 29
Miami Dolphins 27

October 12, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3.5

Luck index +47 Chargers lucky · −47 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 5, Dolphins win 5.

  1. 1 LAC 24 MIA 3
  2. 2 LAC 27 MIA 14
  3. 3 LAC 26 MIA 17
  4. 4 LAC 26 MIA 21
  5. 5 LAC 33 MIA 30
  6. 6 LAC 20 MIA 23
  7. 7 LAC 14 MIA 20
  8. 8 LAC 21 MIA 31
  9. 9 LAC 13 MIA 27
  10. 10 LAC 5 MIA 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 53% of them, Dolphins 47%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+12.3%
Chargers by 9–1614.8%
Chargers by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation6.3%
Dolphins by 1–821.3%
Dolphins by 9–1614.4%
Dolphins by 17+9.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 6.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Dicker, 31 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Patterson, 57 yds missed · 62% expected
  • C. Dicker, 29 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Patterson, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • R. Patterson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Matthew Butler), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 314 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 +10% LAC LAC: Field goal
2 Q1 2:51 The Chargers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +13% LAC LAC: Field goal
3 Q2 12:02 R. Patterson missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 14 of 19 from 45+ before +9% LAC MIA: Field goal
4 Q2 0:54 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q3 6:02 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% LAC MIA: Punt
6 Q4 0:52 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +25% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:09 C. Dicker made 33-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +11% LAC –
8 Q4 0:05 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +40% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jason Sanders (MIA K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Storm Duck (MIA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyrel Dodson (MIA LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Khalil Mack (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Joe Alt (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quentin Johnston (LAC WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jamaree Salyer (LAC G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Pipkins (LAC G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jamaree Salyer (LAC OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Omarion Hampton (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (LAC DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Harris (LAC LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 14% · Dolphins 86%

Final margin
Chargers by 2
Luck in points
8.8 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 53% · Dolphins 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Chargers · Dolphins

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