luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Cardinals at Colts, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Cardinals 31–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: drops alone were worth 1.8 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Colts were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:58 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 7, worth 41 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 27
Indianapolis Colts 31

October 12, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −8.5

Luck index +17 Colts about even · −17 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 ARI 33 IND 21
  2. 2 ARI 23 IND 20
  3. 3 ARI 31 IND 34
  4. 4 ARI 20 IND 24
  5. 5 ARI 30 IND 38
  6. 6 ARI 12 IND 23
  7. 7 ARI 17 IND 31
  8. 8 ARI 24 IND 42
  9. 9 ARI 3 IND 24
  10. 10 ARI 27 IND 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 17% of them, Colts 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+1.3%
Cardinals by 9–163.9%
Cardinals by 1–810.3%
Level after regulation1.3%
Colts by 1–824.6%
Colts by 9–1623.8%
Colts by 17+34.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 2.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Badgley, 45 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Ryland, 44 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:37 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:44 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% IND IND: Field goal
3 Q3 4:39 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedT. Warren dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 29 catchable balls before this +12% ARI IND: Field goal
4 Q3 4:36 M. Badgley made 45-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 14 of 30 from 45+ before +10% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:36 C. Ryland made 44-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +12% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 5:48 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:06 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% IND ARI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +41% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Jones (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by j.brissett · 4.2 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Darius Robinson (ARI DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • L.J. Collier (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Darius Robinson (ARI DT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 37% · Colts 63%

Final margin
Colts by 4
Luck in points
6.6 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 2.6
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 17% · Colts 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Cardinals · Colts

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