Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025
Cardinals at Colts, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
The Colts beat the Cardinals 31–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: drops alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Before kickoff the Colts were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:58 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 7, worth 24 points of win probability to the Colts.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 27 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Colts about even · −15 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 2, Colts win 8.
- 1 ARI 30 IND 19
- 2 ARI 16 IND 13
- 3 ARI 22 IND 24
- 4 ARI 24 IND 29
- 5 ARI 30 IND 37
- 6 ARI 17 IND 27
- 7 ARI 17 IND 30
- 8 ARI 14 IND 30
- 9 ARI 16 IND 37
- 10 ARI 16 IND 46
Your call
Did the Colts earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 15% of them, Colts 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 24.9% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 23.6% |
| Colts by 17+ | 35.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Ryland, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- M. Badgley, 45 yds made · 74% expected
- C. Ryland, 44 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Cardinals 7 for 65 yards, Colts 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:01 | False Start on the Cardinals (Greg Dortch), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% IND +0.5 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Cardinals, 3 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.3 pts |
| Q2 14:12 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Colts (Chris Lammons), 15 yards | +5% ARI +1.1 pts |
| Q2 5:23 | Encroachment on the Colts (Samson Ebukam), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:03 | Face Mask on the Cardinals (Zay Jones), 15 yards | +6% IND +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:36 | Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.2 pts |
| Q3 4:22 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 15 yards | +5% ARI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:12 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Colts (Michael Badgley), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI 0.0 pts |
| Q4 13:05 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% IND +1.2 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards | +6% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:08 | Face Mask on the Cardinals (Zaven Collins), 15 yards | +7% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q4 4:32 | Face Mask on the Cardinals (Owen Pappoe), 12 yards | +2% IND +1.1 pts |
Cardinals penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 3:16 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +8% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 4:44 | The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +10% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 4:39 | T. Warren dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 29 catchable balls before this | +9% ARI | IND: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 4:36 | M. Badgley made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 14 of 30 from 45+ before | +10% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:36 | C. Ryland made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him | +12% ARI | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 5:48 | The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +9% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:06 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% IND | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:58 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +24% IND | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jaylon Jones (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by j.brissett · 4.2 pts
- Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Darius Robinson (ARI DL), out · 0.2 pts
- Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- L.J. Collier (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Darius Robinson (ARI DT), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 10% · Colts 90%
- Final margin
- Colts by 4
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for the Colts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colts by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 15% · Colts 85% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Cardinals · 
Colts
More from Week 6 2025
- Eagles at Giants NYG 34–17 · replay 83% for the winner
- Broncos vs Jets DEN 13–11 · replay 89% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 23–9 · replay 98% for the winner
- Cowboys at Panthers CAR 30–27 · replay 74% for the winner
- Chargers at Dolphins LAC 29–27 · replay 73% for the winner
- Rams at Ravens LA 17–3 · replay 83% for the winner
- Patriots at Saints NE 25–19 · replay 85% for the winner
- Seahawks at Jaguars SEA 20–12 · replay 94% for the winner
- Titans at Raiders LV 20–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bengals at Packers GB 27–18 · replay 93% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers TB 30–19 · replay 80% for the winner
- Lions at Chiefs KC 30–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bills at Falcons ATL 24–14 · replay 41% for the winner
- Bears at Commanders CHI 25–24 · replay 35% for the winner