NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Cardinals have won 43.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 52.1. Luck cost them 8.6 wins. Their luckiest season was 2021 (+0.5 wins), the unluckiest 2025 (−3.1).
2026: 1–1 so far, replay wins 0.8 (+0.2 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1–1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 0–0 | −1.97 | – |
| 2025 | 3–14 | 6.1 | −3.1 | 2–8 | −0.86 | – |
| 2024 | 8–9 | 10.2 | −2.2 | 3–5 | −0.28 | – |
| 2023 | 4–13 | 4.5 | −0.5 | 2–5 | +0.90 | – |
| 2022 | 4–13 | 5.1 | −1.1 | 2–6 | +0.14 | – |
| 2021 | 11–6 | 10.5 | +0.5 | 3–4 | −0.61 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 8–8 | 9.0 | −1.0 | 4–5 | +0.16 | – |
| 2019 | 5–10–1 | 6.7 | −1.2 | 3–5–1 | +1.37 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Cardinals take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Week 7 | vs Saints | W 42–34 | 10% | +90 |
| 2020 Week 7 | vs Seahawks | W 37–34 | 14% | +86 |
| 2020 Week 1 | @ 49ers | W 24–20 | 26% | +74 |
| 2021 Week 5 | vs 49ers | W 17–10 | 28% | +72 |
| 2019 Week 6 | vs Falcons | W 34–33 | 31% | +69 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Cardinals would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Buccaneers | L 17–20 | 93% | −93 |
| 2024 Week 17 | @ Rams | L 9–13 | 83% | −83 |
| 2021 Week 15 | @ Lions | L 12–30 | 80% | −80 |
| 2024 Week 16 | @ Panthers | L 30–36 | 74% | −74 |
| 2020 Week 3 | vs Lions | L 23–26 | 70% | −70 |
