NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Cardinals have won 43.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 52.5. Luck cost them 9.0 wins. Their luckiest season was 2021 (+0.4 wins), the unluckiest 2025 (−3.4).
2026: 3–6 so far, replay wins 2.8 (+0.2 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3–6 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 2–1 | −0.21 | – |
| 2025 | 3–14 | 6.4 | −3.4 | 2–8 | +0.03 | – |
| 2024 | 8–9 | 9.9 | −1.9 | 3–5 | +0.16 | – |
| 2023 | 4–13 | 4.7 | −0.7 | 2–5 | −0.03 | – |
| 2022 | 4–13 | 5.3 | −1.3 | 2–6 | +0.30 | – |
| 2021 | 11–6 | 10.6 | +0.4 | 3–4 | −0.56 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 8–8 | 9.0 | −1.0 | 4–5 | +0.12 | – |
| 2019 | 5–10–1 | 6.7 | −1.2 | 3–5–1 | −0.19 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −3.4 | −0.20 | −0.40 | +0.22 | +0.02 | −0.47 | −0.11 |
| 2024 | −1.9 | +0.38 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.08 | +0.33 | −0.38 |
| 2023 | −0.7 | +0.73 | −0.24 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.45 | −0.14 |
| 2022 | −1.3 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.34 | +0.15 | −0.63 | −0.31 |
| 2021 | +0.4 | +0.74 | +0.30 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.17 | +0.29 |
| 2020 | −1.0 | +0.47 | −1.02 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.33 | +0.09 |
| 2019 | −1.2 | −0.13 | +0.02 | 0.00 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.16 |
| Since 2019 | −9.0 | +1.96 | −1.64 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.92 | −0.73 |
Are the Cardinals lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Cardinals have won 43.5 regular-season games from play worth 52.5: −9.0 wins of luck, the 2nd-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Cardinals had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from kicks (−1.6 wins) and injuries (−0.9 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 19–38–1 since 2019, where the replays give them 26.6 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Cardinals’ luckiest season?
2021: 11–6 from play worth 10.6 wins, +0.4 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2025: 3–14 from play worth 6.4 (−3.4).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Cardinals’ luckiest wins
Wins the Cardinals take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 7 | vs Seahawks | W 37–34 | 13% | +87 |
| 2022 Week 7 | vs Saints | W 42–34 | 14% | +86 |
| 2020 Week 1 | @ 49ers | W 24–20 | 23% | +77 |
| 2021 Week 5 | vs 49ers | W 17–10 | 27% | +73 |
| 2019 Week 6 | vs Falcons | W 34–33 | 29% | +71 |
The Cardinals’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Cardinals would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Buccaneers | L 17–20 | 93% | −93 |
| 2021 Week 15 | @ Lions | L 12–30 | 82% | −82 |
| 2024 Week 17 | @ Rams | L 9–13 | 81% | −81 |
| 2020 Week 3 | vs Lions | L 23–26 | 68% | −68 |
| 2020 Week 9 | vs Dolphins | L 31–34 | 68% | −68 |
