luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Cardinals, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Cardinals 26–23, but the replays lean toward the Cardinals: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:09 left): Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 46 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Detroit Lions 26
Arizona Cardinals 23

September 27, 2020 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −4.5

Luck index +68 Lions very lucky · −68 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 3, Cardinals win 7.

  1. 1 DET 37 ARI 20
  2. 2 DET 38 ARI 31
  3. 3 DET 29 ARI 27
  4. 4 DET 24 ARI 26
  5. 5 DET 17 ARI 22
  6. 6 DET 23 ARI 31
  7. 7 DET 3 ARI 13
  8. 8 DET 10 ARI 24
  9. 9 DET 7 ARI 25
  10. 10 DET 24 ARI 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 32% of them, Cardinals 68%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+4.8%
Lions by 9–168.3%
Lions by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation3.8%
Cardinals by 1–825.4%
Cardinals by 9–1620.2%
Cardinals by 17+22.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Lions by 3, without the luck Lions by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 54 yds made · 67% expected
  • M. Prater, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Prater, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 7 for 46 yards, Cardinals 7 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:29 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% ARI +0.8 pts
Q1 12:03 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 5 yards, wiping out the play +19% DET +5.0 pts
Q1 4:45 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Chandler Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.5 pts
Q1 0:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Darryl Roberts), 6 yards +2% ARI +0.6 pts
Q2 12:28 False Start on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.5 pts
Q2 6:15 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 0:21 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 0 yards 0% DET 0.0 pts
Q3 11:24 False Start on the Cardinals (Dan Arnold), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +1.4 pts
Q3 8:42 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Jeff Okudah), 5 yards +3% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Elijah Lee), 10 yards +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q4 12:08 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% ARI +0.3 pts
Q4 8:26 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET 0.0 pts
Q4 2:09 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +46% ARI +5.8 pts
Q4 1:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 13 yards +10% DET +1.3 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:03 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1261 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +19% DET DET: Field goal
2 Q3 3:31 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:57 The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% DET DET: Punt
4 Q4 9:45 The Lions converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +10% DET DET: Field goal
5 Q4 7:35 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% ARI DET: Field goal
6 Q4 2:09 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +46% ARI –
7 Q4 1:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1261 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +10% DET DET: Field goal
8 Q4 0:04 M. Prater made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +10% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Kirk (ARI WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Justin Coleman (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Dahl (DET G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 75% · Cardinals 25%

Final margin
Lions by 3
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Lions 32% · Cardinals 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Lions · Cardinals

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