Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Lions at Cardinals, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Cardinals 26–23, but the Cardinals played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.
Before kickoff the Cardinals were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:09 left): Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 77 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 26 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +70 Lions very lucky · −70 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 3, Cardinals win 7.
- 1 DET 45 ARI 28
- 2 DET 24 ARI 16
- 3 DET 23 ARI 21
- 4 DET 28 ARI 30
- 5 DET 20 ARI 24
- 6 DET 14 ARI 21
- 7 DET 17 ARI 28
- 8 DET 21 ARI 35
- 9 DET 13 ARI 32
- 10 DET 6 ARI 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 30% of them, Cardinals 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 4.3% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 7.9% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 15.4% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 23.4% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Lions by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 3.4.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Prater, 37 yds made · 92% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 54 yds made · 67% expected
- M. Prater, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- M. Prater, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Prater, 39 yds made · 90% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:03 | Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1261 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +19% DET | DET: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 5:40 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +13% DET | ARI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 7:51 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +15% DET | ARI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 3:31 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +12% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:45 | The Lions converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +10% DET | DET: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 7:35 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +12% ARI | DET: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 2:09 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +77% ARI | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | M. Prater made 39-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +18% DET | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Christian Kirk (ARI WR), out · 1.0 pts
- Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Justin Coleman (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Joe Dahl (DET G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 69% · Cardinals 31%
- Final margin
- Lions by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 3.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 30% · Cardinals 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · 
Lions · 
Cardinals
More from Week 3 2020
- Dolphins at Jaguars MIA 31–13 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bears at Falcons CHI 30–26 · replay 18% for the winner
- Bengals at Eagles PHI 23–23 · replay 47% for the winner
- Texans at Steelers PIT 28–21 · replay 72% for the winner
- Rams at Bills BUF 35–32 · replay 25% for the winner
- Raiders at Patriots NE 36–20 · replay 59% for the winner
- 49ers at Giants SF 36–9 · replay 97% for the winner
- Titans at Vikings TEN 31–30 · replay 40% for the winner
- Washington at Browns CLE 34–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Chargers CAR 21–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Jets at Colts IND 36–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cowboys at Seahawks SEA 38–31 · replay 34% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Broncos TB 28–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Packers at Saints GB 37–30 · replay 70% for the winner
- Chiefs at Ravens KC 34–20 · replay 83% for the winner