Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Rams at Bills, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?
The Bills beat the Rams 35–32, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.7 points to the Bills.
The Bills won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bills were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:32 left): the Bills were stopped on 3rd & 22, worth 49 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 32 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +75 Bills very lucky · −75 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 8, Bills win 2.
- 1 LA 44 BUF 14
- 2 LA 33 BUF 10
- 3 LA 32 BUF 13
- 4 LA 23 BUF 10
- 5 LA 28 BUF 17
- 6 LA 17 BUF 10
- 7 LA 34 BUF 28
- 8 LA 30 BUF 28
- 9 LA 10 BUF 13
- 10 LA 9 BUF 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bills won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 25%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Bills: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams offenseEPA per play gained | +0.25 | +0.15 | better by 0.10 |
| Rams defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.30 | +0.07 | worse by 0.23 |
| Bills offenseEPA per play gained | +0.30 | +0.11 | better by 0.19 |
| Bills defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.25 | +0.04 | worse by 0.21 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 75% of them, Bills 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 26.2% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 22.0% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 23.8% |
| Level after regulation | 4.4% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 13.9% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 6.5% |
| Bills by 17+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Bills by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 4.5.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- S. Sloman, 53 yds missed · 60% expected
- S. Sloman, 30 yds made · 95% expected
When it happened
Bills’ chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:48 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +7% BUF | LA: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:12 | S. Sloman missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +7% BUF | LA: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 1:46 | The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +7% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 7:32 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bills (Josh Allen), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1221 snaps before, position avg 1 per 669False Start on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +49% LA | BUF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 4:33 | The Rams converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +9% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:20 | The Bills converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +16% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:49 | Face Mask on the Bills (Josh Allen), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1221 snaps before, position avg 1 per 669 | +18% LA | LA: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +20% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Dawson Knox (BUF TE), out · 0.7 pts
- Jon Feliciano (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 26% · Bills 74%
- Final margin
- Bills by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bills by 4.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 75% · Bills 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · 
Rams · 
Bills
More from Week 3 2020
- Dolphins at Jaguars MIA 31–13 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bears at Falcons CHI 30–26 · replay 18% for the winner
- Bengals at Eagles PHI 23–23 · replay 47% for the winner
- Texans at Steelers PIT 28–21 · replay 72% for the winner
- Raiders at Patriots NE 36–20 · replay 59% for the winner
- 49ers at Giants SF 36–9 · replay 97% for the winner
- Titans at Vikings TEN 31–30 · replay 40% for the winner
- Washington at Browns CLE 34–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Chargers CAR 21–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Jets at Colts IND 36–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cowboys at Seahawks SEA 38–31 · replay 34% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals DET 26–23 · replay 30% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Broncos TB 28–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Packers at Saints GB 37–30 · replay 70% for the winner
- Chiefs at Ravens KC 34–20 · replay 83% for the winner