luckadjusted

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Browns, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat Washington 34–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10. Washington had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.6 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the Browns were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:24 left): Washington converted 3rd & 11, worth 15 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 20
Cleveland Browns 34

September 27, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −7.5

Luck index +3 Browns about even · −3 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 0, Browns win 10.

  1. 1 WAS 24 CLE 27
  2. 2 WAS 16 CLE 22
  3. 3 WAS 13 CLE 22
  4. 4 WAS 16 CLE 28
  5. 5 WAS 24 CLE 38
  6. 6 WAS 0 CLE 17
  7. 7 WAS 6 CLE 26
  8. 8 WAS 10 CLE 34
  9. 9 WAS 0 CLE 29
  10. 10 WAS 19 CLE 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 3% of them, Browns 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+0.1%
Washington by 9–160.6%
Washington by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
Browns by 1–85.8%
Browns by 9–1617.0%
Browns by 17+73.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 10.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 42 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Parkey, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:26 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% CLE CLE: Punt
2 Q2 12:53 The Browns converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q2 9:22 Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +11% WAS WAS: Turnover
4 Q3 3:44 Washington converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:08 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:24 Washington converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +15% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:00 The Browns converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:14 Offensive Pass Interference on Washington (Terry McLaurin), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 894 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 4% · Browns 96%

Final margin
Browns by 14
Luck in points
3.4 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Washington 3% · Browns 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Washington · Browns

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