luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Eagles, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Eagles and the Bengals tied 23–23. Replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 3:24 left): Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final (OT)

Cincinnati Bengals 23
Philadelphia Eagles 23

September 27, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −5.5

Luck index +3 Eagles about even · −3 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 5, Eagles win 5.

  1. 1 CIN 41 PHI 19
  2. 2 CIN 31 PHI 16
  3. 3 CIN 30 PHI 20
  4. 4 CIN 27 PHI 22
  5. 5 CIN 17 PHI 15
  6. 6 CIN 17 PHI 19
  7. 7 CIN 21 PHI 26
  8. 8 CIN 17 PHI 27
  9. 9 CIN 6 PHI 22
  10. 10 CIN 9 PHI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 53% of them, Eagles 47%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tie.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+12.8%
Bengals by 9–1615.6%
Bengals by 1–820.9%
Level after regulation4.9%
Eagles by 1–820.3%
Eagles by 9–1614.1%
Eagles by 17+11.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Eagles: the final margin was even, without the luck Bengals by 6.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Bullock, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Elliott, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Elliott, 54 yds made · 64% expected
  • R. Bullock, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Bullock, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 9 for 73 yards, Eagles 11 for 93 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals, 15 yards +5% PHI +1.8 pts
Q2 13:45 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q2 11:23 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Malik Jackson), 15 yards +6% CIN +1.7 pts
Q2 9:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Corey Clement), 15 yards +5% CIN +1.4 pts
Q2 8:50 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% PHI +1.0 pts
Q2 7:07 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +4% CIN +1.6 pts
Q2 1:50 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Brandon Graham), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 1:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Jalen Mills), 14 yards +7% CIN +1.2 pts
Q3 13:00 Illegal Contact on the Bengals (Darius Phillips), 5 yards +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 6:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Javon Hargrave), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.3 pts
Q4 7:35 Illegal Touch Pass on the Bengals (Tee Higgins), 0 yards 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q4 5:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 4 yards +1% CIN +0.8 pts
Q4 5:20 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.8 pts
Q4 2:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (William Jackson III), 19 yards +5% PHI +1.2 pts
Q4 2:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Darius Phillips), 9 yards +7% PHI +0.4 pts
OT 6:18 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +14% PHI +1.2 pts
OT 4:05 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% CIN +0.5 pts
OT 3:24 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +21% CIN +1.6 pts
OT 0:19 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.1 pts
OT 0:19 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.1 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:55 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% PHI PHI: Field goal
2 Q4 11:43 The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% PHI PHI: Punt
3 Q4 7:14 The Bengals converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 OT 8:39 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +16% PHI CIN: Punt
5 OT 7:11 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% CIN PHI: Punt
6 OT 6:18 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yardsJudgment calls +14% PHI PHI: Punt
7 OT 3:24 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +21% CIN CIN: Punt
8 OT 0:23 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +17% CIN PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Reagor (PHI WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Geno Atkins (CIN DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Shawn Williams (CIN SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Uzomah (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 88% · Eagles 12%

Final margin
even
Luck in points
6.2 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 53% · Eagles 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Bengals · Eagles

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