luckadjusted

Week 3 2020 · September 24, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Jaguars, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jaguars 31–13 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 59% favorites.

Final

Miami Dolphins 31
Jacksonville Jaguars 13

September 24, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3

Luck index +35 Dolphins lucky · −35 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 7, Jaguars win 3.

  1. 1 MIA 31 JAX 7
  2. 2 MIA 31 JAX 13
  3. 3 MIA 27 JAX 13
  4. 4 MIA 23 JAX 13
  5. 5 MIA 20 JAX 13
  6. 6 MIA 26 JAX 23
  7. 7 MIA 22 JAX 20
  8. 8 MIA 17 JAX 20
  9. 9 MIA 26 JAX 35
  10. 10 MIA 10 JAX 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 65% of them, Jaguars 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+16.9%
Dolphins by 9–1620.0%
Dolphins by 1–827.1%
Level after regulation2.8%
Jaguars by 1–819.0%
Jaguars by 9–169.4%
Jaguars by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 5.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:15 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:54 Horse Collar Tackle on the Jaguars (Joe Schobert), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1282 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:17 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% JAX JAX: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 10:20 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 64 snaps before, position avg 1 per 208 +4% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:15 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% MIA JAX: Punt
8 Q3 4:39 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Chris Conley), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 920 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quincy Williams (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jarrod Wilson (JAX FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Vince Biegel (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 89% · Jaguars 11%

Final margin
Dolphins by 18
Luck in points
12.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 65% · Jaguars 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Dolphins · Jaguars

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