luckadjusted

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Patriots, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Raiders 36–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:08 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 20
New England Patriots 36

September 27, 2020 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −7

Luck index +41 Patriots lucky · −41 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 4, Patriots win 6.

  1. 1 LV 62 NE 40
  2. 2 LV 20 NE 6
  3. 3 LV 28 NE 20
  4. 4 LV 31 NE 28
  5. 5 LV 22 NE 24
  6. 6 LV 20 NE 24
  7. 7 LV 20 NE 29
  8. 8 LV 17 NE 30
  9. 9 LV 17 NE 34
  10. 10 LV 7 NE 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 41% of them, Patriots 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+9.0%
Raiders by 9–1612.3%
Raiders by 1–818.3%
Level after regulation3.1%
Patriots by 1–825.6%
Patriots by 9–1615.8%
Patriots by 17+16.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 5.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • N. Folk, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 41 yds missed · 84% expected
  • N. Folk, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:47 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 1019 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +9% NE NE: Punt
2 Q1 3:20 The Raiders fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NE LV: Field goal
3 Q1 2:08 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% LV NE: Field goal
4 Q2 13:41 Face Mask on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1019 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +6% NE NE: Field goal
5 Q2 12:10 The Raiders fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NE LV: Punt
6 Q2 8:04 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% LV NE: Field goal
7 Q3 11:32 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% NE LV: Missed field goal
8 Q3 10:48 D. Carlson missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +12% NE LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Trent Brown (LV T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyrell Williams (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Henry Ruggs III (LV WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Richie Incognito (LV G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 7% · Patriots 93%

Final margin
Patriots by 16
Luck in points
10.4 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 41% · Patriots 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Raiders · Patriots

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