Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Jets at Colts, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?
The Colts beat the Jets 36–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Colts were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:35 left): Return touchdown by the Colts, worth 17 points of win probability to the Colts.
Final
 New York Jets | 7 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 Colts about even · −9 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 1, Colts win 9.
- 1 NYJ 23 IND 17
- 2 NYJ 24 IND 27
- 3 NYJ 13 IND 19
- 4 NYJ 13 IND 22
- 5 NYJ 20 IND 32
- 6 NYJ 10 IND 24
- 7 NYJ 16 IND 33
- 8 NYJ 6 IND 26
- 9 NYJ 3 IND 27
- 10 NYJ 10 IND 42
Your call
Did the Colts earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 9% of them, Colts 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 5.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 17.9% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 22.4% |
| Colts by 17+ | 49.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Blankenship, 42 yds made · 87% expected
- R. Blankenship, 41 yds missed · 88% expected
- R. Blankenship, 41 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Jets 7 for 57 yards, Colts 4 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:47 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 10 yards | +5% NYJ +2.3 pts |
| Q2 14:20 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Pierre Desir), 3 yards | +3% IND +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:24 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards | +1% NYJ +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:16 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | +3% IND +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yards | +1% IND +1.3 pts |
| Q4 11:48 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | 0% IND +1.2 pts |
| Q4 11:21 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% IND +1.4 pts |
| Q4 9:47 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 10 yards | 0% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:46 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% NYJ +1.8 pts |
| Q4 6:18 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Nate Hairston), 4 yards | 0% IND +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:44 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.6 pts |
Jets penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:47 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% NYJ | NYJ: Opp touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:35 | Return touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams | +17% IND | IND: Opp touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:53 | The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:35 | The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:09 | The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 0:03 | R. Blankenship missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +6% NYJ | IND: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 10:39 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +4% IND | NYJ: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 5:24 | The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +3% IND | IND: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Rock Ya-Sin (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Malik Hooker (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- George Fant (NYJ T), out · 0.6 pts
- Arthur Maulet (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Le'Veon Bell (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Vyncint Smith (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Breshad Perriman (NYJ WR), out · 0.3 pts
- Nate Hairston (NYJ CB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 0% · Colts 100%
- Final margin
- Colts by 29
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colts by 29.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 9% · Colts 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · 
Jets · 
Colts
More from Week 3 2020
- Dolphins at Jaguars MIA 31–13 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bears at Falcons CHI 30–26 · replay 16% for the winner
- Bengals at Eagles PHI 23–23 · replay 47% for the winner
- Texans at Steelers PIT 28–21 · replay 71% for the winner
- Rams at Bills BUF 35–32 · replay 22% for the winner
- Raiders at Patriots NE 36–20 · replay 60% for the winner
- 49ers at Giants SF 36–9 · replay 97% for the winner
- Titans at Vikings TEN 31–30 · replay 40% for the winner
- Washington at Browns CLE 34–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Chargers CAR 21–16 · replay 59% for the winner
- Cowboys at Seahawks SEA 38–31 · replay 33% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals DET 26–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Broncos TB 28–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Packers at Saints GB 37–30 · replay 69% for the winner
- Chiefs at Ravens KC 34–20 · replay 82% for the winner