luckadjusted

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Vikings, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Vikings 31–30, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 7.9 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:09 left): the Vikings were stopped on 4th & 24, worth 17 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 31
Minnesota Vikings 30

September 27, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +60 Titans lucky · −60 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Vikings win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 45 MIN 22
  2. 2 TEN 36 MIN 22
  3. 3 TEN 31 MIN 23
  4. 4 TEN 31 MIN 28
  5. 5 TEN 31 MIN 33
  6. 6 TEN 24 MIN 30
  7. 7 TEN 36 MIN 45
  8. 8 TEN 5 MIN 17
  9. 9 TEN 36 MIN 54
  10. 10 TEN 3 MIN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 40% of them, Vikings 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+9.2%
Titans by 9–1611.9%
Titans by 1–817.5%
Level after regulation1.8%
Vikings by 1–821.8%
Vikings by 9–1617.3%
Vikings by 17+20.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Gostkowski, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Bailey, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • D. Bailey, 49 yds missed · 76% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 54 yds made · 67% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 55 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:03 The Vikings fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% TEN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q3 9:02 S. Gostkowski made 51-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:56 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q4 7:54 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% TEN TEN: Field goal
5 Q4 1:52 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% MIN TEN: Field goal
6 Q4 1:48 S. Gostkowski made 55-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ before +15% TEN TEN: End of game
7 Q4 1:36 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% MIN MIN: Turnover
8 Q4 1:09 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 243rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +17% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • A.J. Brown (TEN WR), out · 1.6 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Chris Jackson (TEN DB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 15% · Vikings 85%

Final margin
Titans by 1
Luck in points
7.4 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Titans 40% · Vikings 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Titans · Vikings

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