luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Vikings, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Vikings 31–30, but the replays lean toward the Vikings: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 39 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:36 left): the Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 17 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Tennessee Titans 31
Minnesota Vikings 30

September 27, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +60 Titans very lucky · −60 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Vikings win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 40 MIN 17
  2. 2 TEN 23 MIN 10
  3. 3 TEN 34 MIN 27
  4. 4 TEN 37 MIN 34
  5. 5 TEN 17 MIN 20
  6. 6 TEN 30 MIN 35
  7. 7 TEN 30 MIN 39
  8. 8 TEN 24 MIN 38
  9. 9 TEN 17 MIN 38
  10. 10 TEN 23 MIN 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 40% of them, Vikings 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+9.0%
Titans by 9–1611.5%
Titans by 1–817.5%
Level after regulation2.1%
Vikings by 1–822.6%
Vikings by 9–1617.1%
Vikings by 17+20.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.2 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 1, without the luck Vikings by 8.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Gostkowski, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Bailey, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Bailey, 49 yds missed · 75% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 54 yds made · 68% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 55 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 4 for 45 yards, Vikings 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:40 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +3% MIN +1.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Blindside Block on the Titans (Jadeveon Clowney), 15 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 10:24 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q3 10:24 Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q4 5:15 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (Irv Smith Jr.), 10 yards +2% TEN +0.8 pts
Q4 3:52 False Start on the Vikings (Chad Beebe), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.2 pts
Q4 1:44 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +3% MIN +0.8 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:03 The Vikings fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% TEN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:19 D. Bailey missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 6 of 8 from 45+ before +6% TEN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 9:02 S. Gostkowski made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before +10% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q3 1:22 The Titans’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% MIN TEN: Field goal
5 Q4 7:54 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% TEN TEN: Field goal
6 Q4 1:52 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% MIN TEN: Field goal
7 Q4 1:48 S. Gostkowski made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 4 of 6 from 45+ before +15% TEN TEN: End of game
8 Q4 1:36 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% MIN MIN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • A.J. Brown (TEN WR), out · 1.6 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Chris Jackson (TEN DB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 10% · Vikings 90%

Final margin
Titans by 1
Luck in points
9.2 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Titans 40% · Vikings 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Titans · Vikings

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