luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Chargers, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Chargers 21–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:00 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Mike Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 17 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 21
Los Angeles Chargers 16

September 27, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −6

Luck index +41 Panthers lucky · −41 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 6, Chargers win 4.

  1. 1 CAR 23 LAC 0
  2. 2 CAR 31 LAC 13
  3. 3 CAR 33 LAC 20
  4. 4 CAR 33 LAC 24
  5. 5 CAR 24 LAC 20
  6. 6 CAR 19 LAC 17
  7. 7 CAR 20 LAC 23
  8. 8 CAR 16 LAC 22
  9. 9 CAR 25 LAC 38
  10. 10 CAR 13 LAC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 59% of them, Chargers 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+14.7%
Panthers by 9–1616.3%
Panthers by 1–826.9%
Level after regulation3.3%
Chargers by 1–818.4%
Chargers by 9–1613.1%
Chargers by 17+7.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 5, without the luck Panthers by 3.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Badgley, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Slye, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 3 for 30 yards, Chargers 8 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:44 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Virgil Green), 10 yards +1% CAR +0.9 pts
Q2 13:28 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 10 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 12:19 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 3:09 Illegal Formation on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% CAR +1.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Mike Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play +17% CAR +4.6 pts
Q3 2:17 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers, 10 yards +4% CAR +1.7 pts
Q4 13:53 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +1.0 pts
Q4 12:12 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q4 5:29 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers, 10 yards +4% CAR +1.6 pts
Q4 0:36 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Yetur Gross-Matos), 15 yards +17% LAC +1.8 pts
Q4 0:12 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% CAR +0.2 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:52 The Chargers fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CAR LAC: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:05 The Chargers fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CAR LAC: Turnover
3 Q2 3:09 Illegal Formation on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 529 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Mike Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 973 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +17% CAR CAR: Field goal
5 Q4 4:39 The Chargers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:36 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Yetur Gross-Matos), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 18 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +17% LAC LAC: Turnover
7 Q4 0:12 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% CAR –
8 Q4 0:06 The Chargers fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% CAR –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Drue Tranquill (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Russell Okung (CAR T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 72% · Chargers 28%

Final margin
Panthers by 5
Luck in points
1.5 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 59% · Chargers 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Panthers · Chargers

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