Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Cowboys at Seahawks, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Cowboys 38–31, but the Cowboys played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 10.8 points to the Seahawks.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:55 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 3, worth 21 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 31 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 Seahawks very lucky · −66 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 7, Seahawks win 3.
- 1 DAL 38 SEA 9
- 2 DAL 46 SEA 24
- 3 DAL 40 SEA 24
- 4 DAL 34 SEA 23
- 5 DAL 41 SEA 33
- 6 DAL 40 SEA 34
- 7 DAL 32 SEA 30
- 8 DAL 37 SEA 40
- 9 DAL 31 SEA 38
- 10 DAL 35 SEA 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 66% of them, Seahawks 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 22.9% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 16.7% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 10.3% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 6.7% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Seahawks by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 7.0.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 43 yds made · 83% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 42 yds made · 84% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:51 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +12% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 7:04 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +7% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 9:42 | Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Daryl Worley), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1093 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +9% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 7:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 777 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +14% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 2:40 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +8% DAL | SEA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:37 | The Seahawks converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +18% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:55 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +21% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:16 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% SEA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Bruce Irvin (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Lano Hill (SEA SS), out · 0.1 pts
- Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
- La'el Collins (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Sean Lee (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 72% · Seahawks 28%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 7
- Luck in points
- 14.0 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 7.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 66% · Seahawks 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · 
Cowboys · 
Seahawks
More from Week 3 2020
- Dolphins at Jaguars MIA 31–13 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bears at Falcons CHI 30–26 · replay 18% for the winner
- Bengals at Eagles PHI 23–23 · replay 47% for the winner
- Texans at Steelers PIT 28–21 · replay 72% for the winner
- Rams at Bills BUF 35–32 · replay 25% for the winner
- Raiders at Patriots NE 36–20 · replay 59% for the winner
- 49ers at Giants SF 36–9 · replay 97% for the winner
- Titans at Vikings TEN 31–30 · replay 40% for the winner
- Washington at Browns CLE 34–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Chargers CAR 21–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Jets at Colts IND 36–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals DET 26–23 · replay 30% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Broncos TB 28–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Packers at Saints GB 37–30 · replay 70% for the winner
- Chiefs at Ravens KC 34–20 · replay 83% for the winner