Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Cowboys at Seahawks, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Cowboys 38–31, but the replays lean toward the Cowboys: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
The Seahawks won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:37 left): the Seahawks converted 4th & 3, worth 18 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 31 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Seahawks very lucky · −67 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 7, Seahawks win 3.
- 1 DAL 40 SEA 9
- 2 DAL 47 SEA 24
- 3 DAL 38 SEA 23
- 4 DAL 41 SEA 29
- 5 DAL 37 SEA 28
- 6 DAL 26 SEA 20
- 7 DAL 31 SEA 28
- 8 DAL 20 SEA 23
- 9 DAL 27 SEA 37
- 10 DAL 20 SEA 40
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Seahawks won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 64% of the time; with this day’s form, 33%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.30 | +0.15 | better by 0.15 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.10 | worse by 0.00 |
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.15 | worse by 0.04 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.30 | +0.12 | worse by 0.18 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 67% of them, Seahawks 33%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 25.2% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 23.1% |
| Level after regulation | 3.4% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 15.2% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 6.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 43 yds made · 84% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 42 yds made · 85% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 10 for 59 yards, Seahawks 5 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:42 | Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Daryl Worley), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +9% SEA +2.2 pts |
| Q2 7:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 8 yards, wiping out the play | +14% SEA +4.5 pts |
| Q2 7:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Brandon Carr), 14 yards | +5% SEA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 3:37 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 5 yards | +3% SEA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:10 | Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:49 | Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:38 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys, 6 yards | +1% SEA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:14 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +1% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jarran Reed), 5 yards | +6% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:54 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SEA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:19 | Encroachment on the Seahawks (Damontre Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% DAL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 4:19 | False Start on the Cowboys (Cedrick Wilson Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% SEA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:47 | Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Trysten Hill), 1 yard | 0% SEA 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:35 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cowboys, 5 yards | +1% DAL +0.6 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:51 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +8% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 9:42 | Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Daryl Worley), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1093 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +9% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 777 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +14% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 15:00 | The Cowboys fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% SEA | DAL: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 13:07 | The Cowboys’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% SEA | DAL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 2:40 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +8% DAL | SEA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:37 | The Seahawks converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +18% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:55 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +8% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Bruce Irvin (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Lano Hill (SEA SS), out · 0.1 pts
- Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
- La'el Collins (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Sean Lee (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 46% · Seahawks 54%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 7
- Luck in points
- 7.8 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 67% · Seahawks 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · 
Cowboys · 
Seahawks
More from Week 3 2020
- Dolphins at Jaguars MIA 31–13 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bears at Falcons CHI 30–26 · replay 16% for the winner
- Bengals at Eagles PHI 23–23 · replay 47% for the winner
- Texans at Steelers PIT 28–21 · replay 71% for the winner
- Rams at Bills BUF 35–32 · replay 22% for the winner
- Raiders at Patriots NE 36–20 · replay 60% for the winner
- 49ers at Giants SF 36–9 · replay 97% for the winner
- Titans at Vikings TEN 31–30 · replay 40% for the winner
- Washington at Browns CLE 34–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Panthers at Chargers CAR 21–16 · replay 59% for the winner
- Jets at Colts IND 36–7 · replay 91% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals DET 26–23 · replay 32% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Broncos TB 28–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Packers at Saints GB 37–30 · replay 69% for the winner
- Chiefs at Ravens KC 34–20 · replay 82% for the winner