2020 season · final

Dallas Cowboys, 2020: game by game

The Cowboys went 6–10 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.6 wins. Luck cost them 1.6: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.

Every game

How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Rams	L 17–20	46%	−46
Week 2	vs Falcons	W 40–39	59%	+41
Week 3	@ Seahawks	L 31–38	67%	−67
Week 4	vs Browns	L 38–49	58%	−58
Week 5	vs Giants	W 37–34	96%	+4
Week 6	vs Cardinals	L 10–38	14%	−14
Week 7	@ Washington	L 3–25	9%	−9
Week 8	@ Eagles	L 9–23	36%	−36
Week 9	vs Steelers	L 19–24	22%	−22
Week 11	@ Vikings	W 31–28	55%	+45
Week 12	vs Washington	L 16–41	31%	−31
Week 13	@ Ravens	L 17–34	23%	−23
Week 14	@ Bengals	W 30–7	90%	+10
Week 15	vs 49ers	W 41–33	16%	+84
Week 16	vs Eagles	W 37–17	86%	+14
Week 17	@ Giants	L 19–23	50%	−50

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −46 @ LA

Wk 2 +41 vs ATL

Wk 3 −67 @ SEA

Wk 4 −58 vs CLE

Wk 5 +4 vs NYG

Wk 6 −14 vs ARI

Wk 7 −9 @ WAS

Wk 8 −36 @ PHI

Wk 9 −22 vs PIT

Wk 11 +45 @ MIN

Wk 12 −31 vs WAS

Wk 13 −23 @ BAL

Wk 14 +10 @ CIN

Wk 15 +84 vs SF

Wk 16 +14 vs PHI

Wk 17 −50 @ NYG

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.30	−0.9
Rest	+0.03	+1.4
Fumble bounces	−0.07	−0.1
3rd & 4th downs	−0.08	−9.5
Judgment calls	−0.60	−5.5
Injuries	−1.04	−43.6