luckadjusted

2020 season · final

Dallas Cowboys, 2020: game by game

The Cowboys went 6–10 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.6 wins. Luck cost them 1.6: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.

Every game

How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Rams L 17–20 45% −45
Week 2 vs Falcons W 40–39 56% +44
Week 3 @ Seahawks L 31–38 66% −66
Week 4 vs Browns L 38–49 60% −60
Week 5 vs Giants W 37–34 96% +4
Week 6 vs Cardinals L 10–38 15% −15
Week 7 @ Washington L 3–25 9% −9
Week 8 @ Eagles L 9–23 39% −39
Week 9 vs Steelers L 19–24 20% −20
Week 11 @ Vikings W 31–28 56% +44
Week 12 vs Washington L 16–41 32% −32
Week 13 @ Ravens L 17–34 23% −23
Week 14 @ Bengals W 30–7 90% +10
Week 15 vs 49ers W 41–33 18% +82
Week 16 vs Eagles W 37–17 86% +14
Week 17 @ Giants L 19–23 48% −48

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Rest+1.4+0.09
Kicks−0.8−0.05
3rd & 4th downs−6.9−0.43
Judgment calls−12.3−0.77
Injuries−58.7−3.67