One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Cowboys in one-score games

The Cowboys are 0–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 4–3–1 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.9 of those 1. Since 2019: 27–26–1 in 54 one-score games, 30.3 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Cowboys win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.9 0–1

2025 +0.9 4–3–1

2024 +0.9 5–5

2023 +0.6 3–2

2022 0.0 5–2

2021 0.0 5–3

2020 −0.1 4–4

2019 −4.2 1–6

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	0–1	0.9 of 1	−0.9	1–1
2025	4–3–1	3.6 of 8	+0.9	7–9–1
2024	5–5	4.1 of 10	+0.9	7–10
2023	3–2	2.4 of 5	+0.6	12–5
2022	5–2	5.0 of 7	0.0	12–5
2021	5–3	5.0 of 8	0.0	12–5
2020	4–4	4.1 of 8	−0.1	6–10
2019	1–6	5.2 of 7	−4.2	8–8

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Giants	L 20–28	85%	−85

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Dallas Cowboys, every season