One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Cowboys in one-score games

The Cowboys are 2–4 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 4–3–1 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 3.9 of those 6. Since 2019: 29–29–1 in 59 one-score games, 32.9 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Cowboys win in replays (regular season).

2026 −1.9 2–4

2025 +1.2 4–3–1

2024 +1.2 5–5

2023 +0.3 3–2

2022 +0.3 5–2

2021 0.0 5–3

2020 −0.1 4–4

2019 −4.3 1–6

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	2–4	3.9 of 6	−1.9	4–5
2025	4–3–1	3.3 of 8	+1.2	7–9–1
2024	5–5	3.8 of 10	+1.2	7–10
2023	3–2	2.7 of 5	+0.3	12–5
2022	5–2	4.7 of 7	+0.3	12–5
2021	5–3	5.0 of 8	0.0	12–5
2020	4–4	4.1 of 8	−0.1	6–10
2019	1–6	5.3 of 7	−4.3	8–8

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Giants	L 20–28	85%	−85
Week 3	vs Ravens	L 31–34	25%	−25
Week 4	@ Texans	W 34–30	43%	+57
Week 5	vs Buccaneers	L 16–24	96%	−96
Week 8	vs Cardinals	L 30–33	64%	−64
Week 9	@ Colts	W 27–23	81%	+19

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Dallas Cowboys, every season