luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Ravens vs Cowboys, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Cowboys 34–31, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): T. Loop made a 56-yard field goal, worth 27 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 34
Dallas Cowboys 31

September 27, 2026 · Maracana Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +25 Ravens about even · −25 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 8, Cowboys win 2.

  1. 1 BAL 42 DAL 14
  2. 2 BAL 45 DAL 24
  3. 3 BAL 45 DAL 28
  4. 4 BAL 33 DAL 20
  5. 5 BAL 37 DAL 27
  6. 6 BAL 43 DAL 36
  7. 7 BAL 44 DAL 40
  8. 8 BAL 28 DAL 27
  9. 9 BAL 14 DAL 18
  10. 10 BAL 26 DAL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 75% of them, Cowboys 25%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+29.0%
Ravens by 9–1620.1%
Ravens by 1–825.6%
Level after regulation2.3%
Cowboys by 1–813.3%
Cowboys by 9–166.8%
Cowboys by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 3, without the luck Ravens by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 28 yds made · 99% expected
  • T. Loop, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 59 yds blocked · 69% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • T. Loop, 56 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 9 for 78 yards, Cowboys 7 for 88 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:06 Face Mask on the Ravens (Trenton Simpson), 13 yards +1% DAL +1.5 pts
Q1 4:32 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cowboys (Brandon Aubrey), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q1 4:32 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 14:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 19 yards +4% BAL +1.4 pts
Q2 12:50 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards +4% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 11:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 49 yards +20% BAL +3.3 pts
Q2 8:47 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards +2% DAL +0.8 pts
Q3 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% BAL +2.9 pts
Q3 5:27 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.8 pts
Q3 2:55 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yards +5% DAL +1.2 pts
Q4 9:42 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cowboys (Brandon Aubrey), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL 0.0 pts
Q4 3:57 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +16% DAL +2.3 pts
Q4 1:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 5 yards +5% BAL +0.6 pts
Q4 1:47 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 0:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 20 yards +11% DAL +1.9 pts
Q4 0:20 False Start on the Cowboys (Luke Schoonmaker), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.8 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 49 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1916 snaps before, position avg 1 per 461 +20% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q3 13:15 The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +10% DAL DAL: Turnover
3 Q3 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:07 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +15% DAL BAL: Punt
5 Q4 3:57 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +16% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q4 0:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2141 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +11% DAL DAL: Field goal
7 Q4 0:14 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +10% BAL DAL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:01 T. Loop made a 56-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 5 of 9 from 45+ before +27% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyler Smith (DAL OL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Cobie Durant (DAL CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Hooker (DAL S), out · 0.3 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out · 1.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 57% · Cowboys 43%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
2.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 75% · Cowboys 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Ravens · Cowboys

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