luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Jets at Lions, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Jets 31–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:11 left): the Jets converted 4th & 6, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 24
Detroit Lions 31

September 27, 2026 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −7

Luck index +8 Lions about even · −8 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Lions win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 27 DET 21
  2. 2 NYJ 13 DET 15
  3. 3 NYJ 21 DET 26
  4. 4 NYJ 23 DET 31
  5. 5 NYJ 14 DET 26
  6. 6 NYJ 21 DET 35
  7. 7 NYJ 10 DET 27
  8. 8 NYJ 17 DET 38
  9. 9 NYJ 5 DET 30
  10. 10 NYJ 10 DET 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 8% of them, Lions 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.3%
Jets by 9–162.0%
Jets by 1–85.3%
Level after regulation1.7%
Lions by 1–816.9%
Lions by 9–1622.6%
Lions by 17+51.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Jets: the final margin was Lions by 7, without the luck Lions by 8.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Sanders, 42 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 4 for 30 yards, Lions 4 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:06 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q2 0:41 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% DET +2.1 pts
Q2 0:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 10 yards +3% DET +0.8 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Trevor Nowaske), 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q3 3:45 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q3 3:34 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets (Azareye'h Thomas), 5 yards +1% DET +0.7 pts
Q3 2:53 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 12:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (D.J. Reed), 16 yards +4% NYJ +2.8 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:47 The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:41 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:37 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +7% NYJ DET: Touchdown
4 Q4 4:44 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +5% DET NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:11 The Jets converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +16% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:06 The Jets’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
7 Q4 2:30 The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +10% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:51 The Jets fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bartch (DET OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Thomas Harper (DET S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adonai Mitchell (NYJ WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mason Taylor (NYJ TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 4% · Lions 96%

Final margin
Lions by 7
Luck in points
1.6 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 8.6
Replay with same day's form
Jets 8% · Lions 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Jets · Lions

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