luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Titans at Giants, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Titans 12–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Giants were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:24 left): the Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 14 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Tennessee Titans 7
New York Giants 12

September 27, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −2.5

Luck index +18 Giants about even · −18 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 2, Giants win 8.

  1. 1 TEN 16 NYG 3
  2. 2 TEN 16 NYG 13
  3. 3 TEN 24 NYG 26
  4. 4 TEN 13 NYG 16
  5. 5 TEN 10 NYG 16
  6. 6 TEN 13 NYG 22
  7. 7 TEN 13 NYG 24
  8. 8 TEN 3 NYG 17
  9. 9 TEN 3 NYG 22
  10. 10 TEN 3 NYG 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 18% of them, Giants 82%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.9%
Titans by 9–165.1%
Titans by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Giants by 1–830.3%
Giants by 9–1623.9%
Giants by 17+26.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Titans: the final margin was Giants by 5, without the luck Giants by 6.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Zvada, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • D. Zvada, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 59 yds missed · 57% expected
  • D. Zvada, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • D. Zvada, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 7 for 63 yards, Giants 10 for 88 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% TEN +2.0 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jacob Martin), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% NYG +1.5 pts
Q2 13:50 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Micah Robinson), 9 yards +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q2 8:08 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.2 pts
Q2 4:49 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Daniel Bellinger), 10 yards +3% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 2:51 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 7 yards, wiping out the play +3% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 1:18 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Elic Ayomanor), 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% NYG +3.2 pts
Q3 12:21 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q3 8:43 Illegal Shift on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 8:16 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +1% TEN +1.3 pts
Q4 12:55 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Erick Hallett), 9 yards +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q4 11:28 Face Mask on the Giants (Shelby Harris), 15 yards +2% TEN +1.6 pts
Q4 5:35 Face Mask on the Titans (James Williams), 15 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 3:12 Fair Catch Interference on the Giants (Elijah Campbell), 15 yards +5% TEN +1.1 pts
Q4 3:12 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.3 pts
Q4 0:50 Encroachment on the Giants (Tremaine Edmunds), 6 yards · pre-snap +12% TEN +1.7 pts
Q4 0:24 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 10 yards +3% TEN +0.7 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:07 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 1:18 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Elic Ayomanor), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 852 snaps before, position avg 1 per 401 +13% NYG NYG: Field goal
3 Q4 5:39 The Titans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q4 3:12 Fair Catch Interference on the Giants (Elijah Campbell), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 1641 snaps before, position avg 1 per 241Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% TEN TEN: Turnover
5 Q4 2:16 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% TEN TEN: Turnover
6 Q4 0:55 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% TEN TEN: Turnover
7 Q4 0:50 Encroachment on the Giants (Tremaine Edmunds), 6 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 7395 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +12% TEN TEN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:24 The Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Giants (Abdul Carter), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 987 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +14% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaxson Dart (NYG QB), out (IR), replaced by j.winston · 2.2 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Tyler Nubin (NYG S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Roy Robertson-Harris (NYG DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kendell Brooks (TEN DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaylen Harrell (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 24% · Giants 76%

Final margin
Giants by 5
Luck in points
1.6 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Titans 18% · Giants 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Titans · Giants

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