luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Bengals at Steelers, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 30–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: drops alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:53 left): the Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recovered, worth 22 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 27
Pittsburgh Steelers 30

September 27, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +35 Steelers lucky · −35 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 4, Steelers win 6.

  1. 1 CIN 31 PIT 14
  2. 2 CIN 37 PIT 27
  3. 3 CIN 35 PIT 31
  4. 4 CIN 23 PIT 21
  5. 5 CIN 27 PIT 29
  6. 6 CIN 13 PIT 17
  7. 7 CIN 10 PIT 17
  8. 8 CIN 17 PIT 28
  9. 9 CIN 0 PIT 16
  10. 10 CIN 13 PIT 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 35% of them, Steelers 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+3.9%
Bengals by 9–169.4%
Bengals by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation2.6%
Steelers by 1–829.5%
Steelers by 9–1620.6%
Steelers by 17+14.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 3, without the luck Steelers by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 50 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Boswell, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Boswell, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 6 for 40 yards, Steelers 5 for 37 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:23 False Start on the Bengals (Dohnte Meyers), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.7 pts
Q1 5:50 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Robert Spears-Jennings), 10 yards +1% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 11:36 Illegal Formation on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% PIT +2.1 pts
Q2 9:25 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards +1% CIN +0.5 pts
Q2 8:17 False Start on the Steelers (Michael Pittman Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q2 1:57 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Tacario Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% PIT +1.1 pts
Q3 13:33 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% PIT +0.5 pts
Q3 8:53 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 6:48 Roughing the Kicker on the Bengals (Cedric Johnson), 15 yards +14% PIT +3.6 pts
Q4 7:39 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 7 yards +2% CIN +0.4 pts
Q4 3:52 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards +3% CIN +0.8 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:46 The Steelers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +11% CIN PIT: End of half
2 Q3 6:48 Roughing the Kicker on the Bengals (Cedric Johnson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 606 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +14% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q3 1:11 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q4 11:21 The Steelers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +13% PIT PIT: Punt
5 Q4 11:04 The Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% PIT CIN: Punt
6 Q4 9:28 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% CIN PIT: Field goal
7 Q4 0:58 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +18% CIN CIN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:53 The Bengals fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joey Porter Jr. (PIT CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Andrei Iosivas (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • B.J. Hill (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 51% · Steelers 49%

Final margin
Steelers by 3
Luck in points
2.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 35% · Steelers 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Bengals · Steelers

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