luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Cincinnati Bengals, 2026: game by game

The Bengals went 2–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck added 0.6: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.

Every game

How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Buccaneers W 33–27 96% +4
Week 2 @ Texans W 20–6 44% +56

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Kicks+6.8+3.39
3rd & 4th downs+4.8+2.38
Fumble bounces+4.7+2.36
Injuries+1.8+0.89
Drops−2.2−1.08
Judgment calls−6.3−3.15