luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Bengals?

A little. Judgment calls have been worth +1.01 points a game to the Bengals since 2019, the 2nd-most of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −0.20 points a game over 7 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Bengals minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262−3.15 29th88 –
202517+1.90 1st4862 –
202417+0.11 15th6061 –
202317+0.70 7th4460 –
202216+1.94 2nd5267 +1.55 (3)
202117+1.56 5th4470 −1.52 (4)
202016−0.03 16th4856 –
201916+1.40 8th5679 –

Biggest calls for the Bengals

  1. Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 13 · 50 pts of win probability
  2. Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 2 · 47 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 2 · 31 pts of win probability
  4. Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Otito Ogbonnia), 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 11 · 29 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 6 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 1 · 24 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (A.J. Green), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 1 · 84 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Daijahn Anthony), 29 yards · 2024 Week 2 · 32 pts of win probability
  3. Illegal Contact on the Bengals (Daijahn Anthony), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 2 · 23 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Tee Higgins), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 3 · 20 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Drew Sample), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 16 · 20 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Bengals?

A little. Judgment calls have been worth +1.01 points a game to the Bengals since 2019, the 2nd-most of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: −0.20 points a game over 7 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Cincinnati Bengals, every season