luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Bengals at Chargers, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Bengals 34–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 8.1 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:57 left): Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Otito Ogbonnia), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 29 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 27
Los Angeles Chargers 34

November 17, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −1

Luck index +50 Chargers lucky · −50 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 5, Chargers win 5.

  1. 1 CIN 47 LAC 24
  2. 2 CIN 34 LAC 20
  3. 3 CIN 40 LAC 30
  4. 4 CIN 20 LAC 14
  5. 5 CIN 33 LAC 30
  6. 6 CIN 20 LAC 22
  7. 7 CIN 17 LAC 23
  8. 8 CIN 33 LAC 44
  9. 9 CIN 16 LAC 31
  10. 10 CIN 10 LAC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 50% of them, Chargers 50%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+14.3%
Bengals by 9–1613.3%
Bengals by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation4.4%
Chargers by 1–820.1%
Chargers by 9–1615.3%
Chargers by 17+12.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 6.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Dicker, 19 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Dicker, 53 yds made · 74% expected
  • E. McPherson, 48 yds missed · 80% expected
  • E. McPherson, 51 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 2:59 The Bengals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q4 12:55 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q4 9:57 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Otito Ogbonnia), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 700 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +29% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
4 Q4 9:04 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +14% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
5 Q4 6:09 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
6 Q4 1:56 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedJ. Chase dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 317 catchable balls before this +18% LAC CIN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 1:52 E. McPherson missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 41 of 57 from 45+ before +21% LAC CIN: Punt
8 Q4 1:43 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% LAC LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Khalil Mack (LAC DE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Simi Fehoko (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zack Moss (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 27% · Chargers 73%

Final margin
Chargers by 7
Luck in points
0.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 50% · Chargers 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Bengals · Chargers

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