luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Bengals at Chargers, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Bengals 34–27, but the replays lean toward the Bengals: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 31 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:52 left): E. McPherson missed a 51-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Chargers. The biggest single swing (Q4, 9:57 left): Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Otito Ogbonnia), 15 yards, wiping out the play.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 27
Los Angeles Chargers 34

November 17, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −1

Luck index +69 Chargers very lucky · −69 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 7, Chargers win 3.

  1. 1 CIN 43 LAC 16
  2. 2 CIN 36 LAC 17
  3. 3 CIN 52 LAC 37
  4. 4 CIN 39 LAC 28
  5. 5 CIN 40 LAC 33
  6. 6 CIN 32 LAC 27
  7. 7 CIN 30 LAC 28
  8. 8 CIN 13 LAC 16
  9. 9 CIN 30 LAC 37
  10. 10 CIN 23 LAC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 69% of them, Chargers 31%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+25.1%
Bengals by 9–1618.7%
Bengals by 1–824.2%
Level after regulation3.0%
Chargers by 1–816.2%
Chargers by 9–167.8%
Chargers by 17+5.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 7, without the luck Chargers by 5.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 19 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Dicker, 53 yds made · 74% expected
  • E. McPherson, 48 yds missed · 80% expected
  • E. McPherson, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 8 for 56 yards, Chargers 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:40 Horse Collar Tackle on the Chargers (Derwin James), 14 yards +5% CIN +1.0 pts
Q1 7:30 Illegal Shift on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q1 7:24 Intentional Grounding on the Bengals (Joe Burrow), 10 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 14:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Kristian Fulton), 8 yards +3% CIN +1.1 pts
Q2 6:08 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (B.J. Hill), 2 yards +1% LAC +0.4 pts
Q2 0:32 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 15 yards +1% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 0:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Josh Newton), 4 yards +2% LAC +0.4 pts
Q3 13:49 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Bengals (Akeem Davis-Gaither), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% LAC +1.6 pts
Q3 7:37 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 3 yards 0% CIN +0.5 pts
Q4 14:21 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q4 11:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.4 pts
Q4 9:57 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Otito Ogbonnia), 15 yards, wiping out the play +28% CIN +4.3 pts
Q4 6:09 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% CIN +2.2 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 9:57 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Otito Ogbonnia), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 700 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +28% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
2 Q4 9:04 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +14% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
3 Q4 7:40 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% LAC CIN: Missed field goal
4 Q4 7:35 E. McPherson missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 41 of 56 from 45+ before +8% LAC CIN: Missed field goal
5 Q4 6:09 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
6 Q4 1:56 J. Chase dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 317 catchable balls before this +16% LAC CIN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 1:52 The game turned hereE. McPherson missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 41 of 57 from 45+ before +20% LAC CIN: Punt
8 Q4 1:43 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +18% LAC LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Khalil Mack (LAC DE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Simi Fehoko (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zack Moss (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 26% · Chargers 74%

Final margin
Chargers by 7
Luck in points
1.5 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 5.5
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 69% · Chargers 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Bengals · Chargers

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