luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Colts at Jets, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Jets 28–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Colts win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jets were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:46 left): the Jets fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 63 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 28
New York Jets 27

November 17, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −4

Luck index +46 Colts lucky · −46 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 5, Jets win 5.

  1. 1 IND 33 NYJ 10
  2. 2 IND 20 NYJ 6
  3. 3 IND 19 NYJ 10
  4. 4 IND 12 NYJ 8
  5. 5 IND 19 NYJ 17
  6. 6 IND 24 NYJ 26
  7. 7 IND 13 NYJ 17
  8. 8 IND 7 NYJ 16
  9. 9 IND 7 NYJ 20
  10. 10 IND 6 NYJ 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 54% of them, Jets 46%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+11.3%
Colts by 9–1616.5%
Colts by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation5.8%
Jets by 1–823.0%
Jets by 9–1613.8%
Jets by 17+8.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 4.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Gay, 47 yds made · 78% expected
  • M. Gay, 56 yds made · 63% expected
  • A. Carlson, 58 yds made · 59% expected
  • A. Carlson, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:28 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% IND IND: Field goal
2 Q3 14:19 The Colts fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYJ IND: Field goal
3 Q3 12:35 The Colts converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q4 8:49 The Jets converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +13% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q4 0:51 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +24% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:46 The Colts’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +63% NYJ IND: End of game
7 Q4 0:23 Defensive Delay of Game on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 14 flags in 3201 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +11% NYJ NYJ: End of game
8 Q4 0:13 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +24% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bernhard Raimann (IND T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 75% · Jets 25%

Final margin
Colts by 1
Luck in points
3.4 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 54% · Jets 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Colts · Jets

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