luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Colts at Jets, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Jets 28–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 31 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Jets were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:46 left): the Jets fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 37 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 28
New York Jets 27

November 17, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −4

Luck index +29 Colts lucky · −29 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 7, Jets win 3.

  1. 1 IND 30 NYJ 6
  2. 2 IND 28 NYJ 10
  3. 3 IND 37 NYJ 23
  4. 4 IND 28 NYJ 17
  5. 5 IND 27 NYJ 20
  6. 6 IND 26 NYJ 21
  7. 7 IND 13 NYJ 10
  8. 8 IND 16 NYJ 19
  9. 9 IND 12 NYJ 19
  10. 10 IND 9 NYJ 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 71% of them, Jets 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+21.6%
Colts by 9–1621.1%
Colts by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation4.2%
Jets by 1–815.6%
Jets by 9–167.7%
Jets by 17+3.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Jets: the final margin was Colts by 1, without the luck Colts by 3.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Gay, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • M. Gay, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • A. Carlson, 58 yds made · 62% expected
  • A. Carlson, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 5 for 40 yards, Jets 2 for 14 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q3 11:24 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q3 4:43 Fair Catch Interference on the Colts (Ashton Dulin), 15 yards +7% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 2:55 Illegal Formation on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q3 2:12 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Ashton Dulin), 10 yards +5% NYJ +1.5 pts
Q4 13:36 False Start on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.5 pts
Q4 7:33 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +2% IND +0.9 pts
Q4 0:23 Defensive Delay of Game on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 5 yards · pre-snap +11% NYJ +0.3 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:08 M. Pittman dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 273 catchable balls before this +8% NYJ IND: Turnover on downs
2 Q3 14:19 The Colts fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYJ IND: Field goal
3 Q3 12:35 The Colts converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q4 8:49 The Jets converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +13% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q4 0:51 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +14% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:46 The Colts’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +37% NYJ IND: End of game
7 Q4 0:23 Defensive Delay of Game on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 14 flags in 3201 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +11% NYJ NYJ: End of game
8 Q4 0:13 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +24% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (NYJ T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Allen Lazard (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Greg Zuerlein (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bernhard Raimann (IND T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 72% · Jets 28%

Final margin
Colts by 1
Luck in points
2.7 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Colts 71% · Jets 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Colts · Jets

More from Week 11 2024