luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Packers at Bears, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Bears 20–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 4.7 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Packers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): C. Santos had a 46-yard field goal blocked, worth 73 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 20
Chicago Bears 19

November 17, 2024 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Packers −6

Luck index +11 Packers about even · −11 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 9, Bears win 1.

  1. 1 GB 26 CHI 0
  2. 2 GB 24 CHI 3
  3. 3 GB 27 CHI 10
  4. 4 GB 28 CHI 14
  5. 5 GB 21 CHI 10
  6. 6 GB 26 CHI 16
  7. 7 GB 17 CHI 10
  8. 8 GB 24 CHI 20
  9. 9 GB 24 CHI 21
  10. 10 GB 13 CHI 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 89% of them, Bears 11%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+35.6%
Packers by 9–1626.5%
Packers by 1–826.6%
Level after regulation0.7%
Bears by 1–88.2%
Bears by 9–162.1%
Bears by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 0.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. Santos, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 46 yds blocked · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:49 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Byron Cowart), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 940 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +9% GB GB: Turnover
2 Q2 6:00 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% CHI GB: End of half
3 Q2 0:10 The Bears converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +10% CHI CHI: Touchdown
4 Q3 2:55 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% GB CHI: Touchdown
5 Q3 2:15 The Bears converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +15% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:29 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% CHI GB: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:33 The Bears converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +21% CHI CHI: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:03 C. Santos had a 46-yard field goal blockedKicks · 81% expected for him, 35 of 47 from 45+ before +73% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Billings (CHI DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 71% · Bears 29%

Final margin
Packers by 1
Luck in points
0.6 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 89% · Bears 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Packers · Bears

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