Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024
Browns at Saints, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Browns 35–14, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Browns.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:58 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 13, worth 10 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 14 |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Saints lucky · −32 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 3, Saints win 7.
- 1 CLE 26 NO 9
- 2 CLE 22 NO 13
- 3 CLE 17 NO 14
- 4 CLE 13 NO 15
- 5 CLE 19 NO 24
- 6 CLE 23 NO 31
- 7 CLE 23 NO 35
- 8 CLE 15 NO 30
- 9 CLE 7 NO 27
- 10 CLE 13 NO 41
Your call
Did the Saints earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 32% of them, Saints 68%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 4.3% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 9.3% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Saints by 17+ | 22.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Hopkins, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
- D. Hopkins, 27 yds missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Browns 3 for 14 yards, Saints 5 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:54 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Will Harris), 15 yards | +3% CLE +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:36 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 9 yards | +2% CLE +1.4 pts |
| Q1 2:37 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 11 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CLE +4.9 pts |
| Q1 1:52 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 1 yard · pre-snap | +2% NO 0.0 pts |
| Q2 10:42 | False Start on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:14 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Payton Turner), 5 yards | +7% CLE +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:36 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:54 | Encroachment on the Browns (Dalvin Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.5 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Saints’ chance of winning
As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:33 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +7% NO | CLE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 2:37 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2447 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 | +8% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:52 | The Browns’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 1 yardPre-snap flags · 12 flags in 3555 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 | +6% NO | CLE: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:14 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Payton Turner), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 712 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 | +7% CLE | CLE: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:07 | The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +7% CLE | CLE: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 8:49 | The Browns’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 1:58 | The Saints converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +10% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:29 | The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +8% NO | NO: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Chris Olave (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Lucas Patrick (NO G), out · 0.3 pts
- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- James Hudson (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 1% · Saints 99%
- Final margin
- Saints by 21
- Luck in points
- 4.3 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 16.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 32% · Saints 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · 
Browns · 
Saints
More from Week 11 2024
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 26–18 · replay 56% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers PIT 18–16 · replay 10% for the winner
- Packers at Bears GB 20–19 · replay 86% for the winner
- Colts at Jets IND 28–27 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jaguars at Lions DET 52–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rams at Patriots LA 28–22 · replay 96% for the winner
- Raiders at Dolphins MIA 34–19 · replay 73% for the winner
- Vikings at Titans MIN 23–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Falcons at Broncos DEN 38–6 · replay 60% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SEA 20–17 · replay 39% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills BUF 30–21 · replay 53% for the winner
- Bengals at Chargers LAC 34–27 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texans at Cowboys HOU 34–10 · replay 96% for the winner