luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Seahawks at 49ers, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the 49ers 20–17, but the 49ers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.9 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:07 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 0 yards, wiping out the play, worth 22 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 20
San Francisco 49ers 17

November 17, 2024 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −6

Luck index +65 Seahawks very lucky · −65 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 4, 49ers win 6.

  1. 1 SEA 26 SF 10
  2. 2 SEA 30 SF 20
  3. 3 SEA 30 SF 24
  4. 4 SEA 9 SF 7
  5. 5 SEA 14 SF 17
  6. 6 SEA 13 SF 17
  7. 7 SEA 20 SF 27
  8. 8 SEA 17 SF 27
  9. 9 SEA 13 SF 28
  10. 10 SEA 17 SF 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 35% of them, 49ers 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+4.3%
Seahawks by 9–1611.5%
Seahawks by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation3.1%
49ers by 1–830.6%
49ers by 9–1617.4%
49ers by 17+13.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 3.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Myers, 57 yds made · 62% expected
  • J. Moody, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:26 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% SEA SEA: Field goal
2 Q3 14:09 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% SF SEA: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:07 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +12% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:42 The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:07 The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:01 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% SF SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:36 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +13% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:07 Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 0 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2248 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +22% SF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Aiyuk (SF WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (SF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Javon Hargrave (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Talanoa Hufanga (SF SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mitch Wishnowsky (SF P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Noah Fant (SEA TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Connor Williams (SEA C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Rayshawn Jenkins (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 52% · 49ers 48%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
6.1 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 35% · 49ers 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Seahawks · 49ers

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