luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Seahawks at 49ers, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the 49ers 20–17, but the replays lean toward the 49ers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:42 left): the 49ers converted 3rd & 11, worth 14 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 20
San Francisco 49ers 17

November 17, 2024 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −6

Luck index +61 Seahawks very lucky · −61 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 4, 49ers win 6.

  1. 1 SEA 32 SF 13
  2. 2 SEA 24 SF 14
  3. 3 SEA 15 SF 10
  4. 4 SEA 17 SF 14
  5. 5 SEA 21 SF 23
  6. 6 SEA 10 SF 14
  7. 7 SEA 10 SF 17
  8. 8 SEA 3 SF 14
  9. 9 SEA 10 SF 26
  10. 10 SEA 7 SF 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 39% of them, 49ers 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+5.1%
Seahawks by 9–1610.8%
Seahawks by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation3.1%
49ers by 1–830.2%
49ers by 9–1616.2%
49ers by 17+13.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 3, without the luck 49ers by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Myers, 57 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Moody, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 4 for 20 yards, 49ers 9 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:09 Encroachment on the 49ers (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q2 5:41 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 4:16 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Jauan Jennings), 9 yards +7% SEA +1.4 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 1:23 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.4 pts
Q2 0:52 Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% SF +0.3 pts
Q2 0:34 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% SF +0.1 pts
Q2 0:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks (Boye Mafe), 5 yards +1% SF 0.0 pts
Q3 12:29 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% SEA +1.7 pts
Q3 12:07 Illegal Formation on the 49ers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% SEA +1.7 pts
Q4 11:31 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards +10% SEA +1.7 pts
Q4 3:10 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards +1% SF +0.6 pts
Q4 0:07 Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 0 yards, wiping out the play +12% SF +2.0 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 8:07 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q4 13:42 The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% SF SF: Touchdown
3 Q4 11:31 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +10% SEA SEA: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 11:07 The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:55 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% SF SEA: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 4:01 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +10% SF SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:36 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +13% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:07 Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 0 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2248 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +12% SF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Aiyuk (SF WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (SF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Javon Hargrave (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Talanoa Hufanga (SF SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mitch Wishnowsky (SF P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Noah Fant (SEA TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Connor Williams (SEA C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Rayshawn Jenkins (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 54% · 49ers 46%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
5.4 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 39% · 49ers 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Seahawks · 49ers

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