Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024
Rams at Patriots, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Patriots 28–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 10 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Patriots.
An off day for the Patriots: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 34% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Rams were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:03 left): J. Karty missed a 26-yard field goal, worth 14 points of win probability to the Patriots.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 28 |
|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Rams about even · −4 Patriots
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 10, Patriots win 0.
- 1 LA 37 NE 3
- 2 LA 27 NE 0
- 3 LA 31 NE 7
- 4 LA 34 NE 14
- 5 LA 37 NE 20
- 6 LA 33 NE 19
- 7 LA 29 NE 18
- 8 LA 30 NE 21
- 9 LA 17 NE 10
- 10 LA 20 NE 17
Your call
Did the Rams earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Patriots
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 34% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams offenseEPA per play gained | +0.40 | +0.09 | better by 0.32 |
| Rams defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.09 | worse by 0.11 |
| Patriots offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | +0.01 | better by 0.19 |
| Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.40 | +0.06 | worse by 0.34 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 96% of them, Patriots 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 68.0% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 19.9% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 2.8% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| Patriots by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 32 yds made · 94% expected
- J. Karty, 26 yds missed · 97% expected
- J. Slye, 25 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Slye, 42 yds made · 84% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Rams 7 for 66 yards, Patriots 7 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:03 | Chop Block on the Patriots (Rhamondre Stevenson), 16 yards | +3% LA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 13:07 | Illegal Formation on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% LA +2.6 pts |
| Q2 12:30 | Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:48 | Encroachment on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NE +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:51 | Face Mask on the Rams, 15 yards | +4% NE +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:37 | False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:28 | Illegal Contact on the Patriots (Christian Elliss), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% LA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:09 | Low Block on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 6 yards | +2% NE +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:10 | Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 2:14 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Jared Verse), 15 yards | +2% NE +1.8 pts |
| Q3 1:20 | Face Mask on the Rams, 15 yards | +1% NE +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:57 | False Start on the Patriots (Ja'Lynn Polk), 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:22 | Illegal Formation on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NE +0.5 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Patriots’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:41 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% NE | NE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:44 | K. Boutte dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 24 catchable balls before this | +6% LA | NE: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:14 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +8% NE | NE: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 5:56 | The Patriots fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% LA | NE: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 4:48 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedEncroachment on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 1342 snaps before, position avg 1 per 528 | +6% NE | NE: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 0:03 | J. Karty missed a 26-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him | +14% NE | LA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:45 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +8% LA | NE: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:55 | The Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +9% LA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Marte Mapu (NE LB), out · 0.2 pts
- David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
- Troy Reeder (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 99% · Patriots 1%
- Final margin
- Rams by 6
- Luck in points
- 6.4 for the Patriots
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 12.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 96% · Patriots 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · 
Rams · 
Patriots
More from Week 11 2024
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 26–18 · replay 56% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers PIT 18–16 · replay 10% for the winner
- Browns at Saints NO 35–14 · replay 68% for the winner
- Packers at Bears GB 20–19 · replay 86% for the winner
- Colts at Jets IND 28–27 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jaguars at Lions DET 52–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Raiders at Dolphins MIA 34–19 · replay 73% for the winner
- Vikings at Titans MIN 23–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Falcons at Broncos DEN 38–6 · replay 60% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SEA 20–17 · replay 39% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills BUF 30–21 · replay 53% for the winner
- Bengals at Chargers LAC 34–27 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texans at Cowboys HOU 34–10 · replay 96% for the winner