luckadjusted

Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024

Rams at Patriots, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Patriots 28–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.1 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Rams were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:56 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 22 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 28
New England Patriots 22

November 17, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Rams −4

Luck index +9 Rams about even · −9 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 LA 35 NE 3
  2. 2 LA 24 NE 0
  3. 3 LA 37 NE 17
  4. 4 LA 27 NE 10
  5. 5 LA 26 NE 12
  6. 6 LA 31 NE 20
  7. 7 LA 37 NE 27
  8. 8 LA 20 NE 14
  9. 9 LA 22 NE 19
  10. 10 LA 17 NE 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 91% of them, Patriots 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+51.4%
Rams by 9–1621.4%
Rams by 1–816.8%
Level after regulation1.7%
Patriots by 1–86.2%
Patriots by 9–162.0%
Patriots by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 15.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Karty, 26 yds missed · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% NE NE: Punt
2 Q1 11:44 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedK. Boutte dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 24 catchable balls before this +7% LA NE: Punt
3 Q1 7:14 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:56 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% LA NE: Field goal
5 Q2 4:48 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedEncroachment on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 1342 snaps before, position avg 1 per 528 +6% NE NE: Field goal
6 Q2 0:03 J. Karty missed 26-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +14% NE LA: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:45 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% LA NE: Field goal
8 Q4 1:55 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marte Mapu (NE LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Troy Reeder (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 100% · Patriots 0%

Final margin
Rams by 6
Luck in points
9.1 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 15.1
Replay with same day's form
Rams 91% · Patriots 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · Rams · Patriots

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