Week 11 2024 · November 17, 2024
Ravens at Steelers, Week 11 2024: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Ravens 18–16, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 24 points of win probability to the Steelers.
The Steelers won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:34 left): Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 25 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 16 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +90 Steelers very lucky · −90 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Steelers win 1.
- 1 BAL 41 PIT 7
- 2 BAL 40 PIT 13
- 3 BAL 40 PIT 17
- 4 BAL 28 PIT 9
- 5 BAL 33 PIT 17
- 6 BAL 30 PIT 17
- 7 BAL 34 PIT 24
- 8 BAL 26 PIT 20
- 9 BAL 30 PIT 27
- 10 BAL 23 PIT 29
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Steelers won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | +0.12 | +0.20 | worse by 0.08 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.18 | +0.06 | better by 0.25 |
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.18 | +0.05 | worse by 0.24 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.06 | worse by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 90% of them, Steelers 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 54.1% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 16.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 32 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Tucker, 47 yds missed · 80% expected
- J. Tucker, 50 yds missed · 73% expected
- C. Boswell, 52 yds made · 74% expected
- C. Boswell, 32 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Boswell, 57 yds made · 69% expected
- J. Tucker, 54 yds made · 68% expected
- C. Boswell, 27 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Ravens 12 for 80 yards, Steelers 7 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:00 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% PIT +1.7 pts |
| Q1 7:20 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q1 7:00 | False Start on the Steelers (Ben Skowronek), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens (Sanoussi Kane), 10 yards | +2% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:39 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:46 | False Start on the Ravens (Nelson Agholor), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:07 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Patrick Queen), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% BAL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:29 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 5 yards | 0% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:14 | False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 14:24 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens (Travis Jones), 5 yards | +2% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:52 | Defensive Offside on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% BAL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 5:34 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% BAL +2.2 pts |
| Q3 2:58 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +4% BAL +1.3 pts |
| Q3 0:56 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Malik Harrison), 10 yards | +2% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 8:46 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +13% PIT +2.0 pts |
| Q4 8:14 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:14 | False Start on the Steelers (Connor Heyward), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:34 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +25% PIT +3.6 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:14 | J. Tucker missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 56 of 76 from 45+ before | +12% PIT | BAL: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:12 | The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +10% BAL | PIT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:42 | J. Tucker missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 56 of 77 from 45+ before | +9% PIT | BAL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:38 | The Ravens fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% PIT | BAL: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 1:03 | V. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 64 catchable balls before this | +8% BAL | PIT: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 8:46 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +13% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:34 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +25% PIT | PIT: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 1:06 | The Ravens’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +13% PIT | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
- James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Eddie Jackson (BAL FS), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 93% · Steelers 7%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 2
- Luck in points
- 11.8 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 9.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 90% · Steelers 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2024 games · 
Ravens · 
Steelers
More from Week 11 2024
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 26–18 · replay 56% for the winner
- Browns at Saints NO 35–14 · replay 68% for the winner
- Packers at Bears GB 20–19 · replay 86% for the winner
- Colts at Jets IND 28–27 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jaguars at Lions DET 52–6 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rams at Patriots LA 28–22 · replay 96% for the winner
- Raiders at Dolphins MIA 34–19 · replay 73% for the winner
- Vikings at Titans MIN 23–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Falcons at Broncos DEN 38–6 · replay 60% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SEA 20–17 · replay 39% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills BUF 30–21 · replay 53% for the winner
- Bengals at Chargers LAC 34–27 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texans at Cowboys HOU 34–10 · replay 96% for the winner