luckadjusted

2024 season · final

Pittsburgh Steelers, 2024: game by game

The Steelers went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.2 wins. Luck added 2.8: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.

Every game

How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Falcons W 18–10 46% +54
Week 2 @ Broncos W 13–6 50% +50
Week 3 vs Chargers W 20–10 86% +14
Week 4 @ Colts L 24–27 34% −34
Week 5 vs Cowboys L 17–20 16% −16
Week 6 @ Raiders W 32–13 62% +38
Week 7 vs Jets W 37–15 53% +47
Week 8 vs Giants W 26–18 76% +24
Week 10 @ Commanders W 28–27 14% +86
Week 11 vs Ravens W 18–16 13% +87
Week 12 @ Browns L 19–24 72% −72
Week 13 @ Bengals W 44–38 68% +32
Week 14 vs Browns W 27–14 86% +14
Week 15 @ Eagles L 13–27 16% −16
Week 16 @ Ravens L 17–34 7% −7
Week 17 vs Chiefs L 10–29 10% −10
Week 18 vs Bengals L 17–19 11% −11
Wild Card @ Ravens L 14–28 6% −6

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+27.9+1.64
Kicks+25.3+1.49
Injuries+10.6+0.62
Fumble bounces+1.6+0.09
Rest+0.2+0.01
3rd & 4th downs−1.1−0.06
Drops−10.5−0.62