2024 season · final
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2024: game by game
The Steelers went 10–7 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.0 wins. Luck added 2.0: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.0.
Every game
How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Falcons | W 18–10 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 2 | @ Broncos | W 13–6 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 3 | vs Chargers | W 20–10 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 4 | @ Colts | L 24–27 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 5 | vs Cowboys | L 17–20 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 6 | @ Raiders | W 32–13 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 7 | vs Jets | W 37–15 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 8 | vs Giants | W 26–18 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 10 | @ Commanders | W 28–27 | 5% | +95 |
| Week 11 | vs Ravens | W 18–16 | 10% | +90 |
| Week 12 | @ Browns | L 19–24 | 74% | −74 |
| Week 13 | @ Bengals | W 44–38 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 14 | vs Browns | W 27–14 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 15 | @ Eagles | L 13–27 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 16 | @ Ravens | L 17–34 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 17 | vs Chiefs | L 10–29 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 18 | vs Bengals | L 17–19 | 18% | −18 |
| Wild Card | @ Ravens | L 14–28 | 3% | −3 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.62 | +25.6 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.37 | +2.7 |
| Judgment calls | +0.34 | +11.7 |
| Injuries | +0.23 | +8.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.15 | −0.1 |
| Drops | −1.10 | −20.1 |