2025 season · final
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2025: game by game
The Steelers went 10–7 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.1 wins. Luck added 1.9: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.
Every game
How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Jets | W 34–32 | 7% | +93 |
| Week 2 | vs Seahawks | L 17–31 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 3 | @ Patriots | W 21–14 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 4 | vs Vikings | W 24–21 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 6 | vs Browns | W 23–9 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 7 | @ Bengals | L 31–33 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 8 | vs Packers | L 25–35 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 9 | vs Colts | W 27–20 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 10 | @ Chargers | L 10–25 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 11 | vs Bengals | W 34–12 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 12 | @ Bears | L 28–31 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 13 | vs Bills | L 7–26 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 14 | @ Ravens | W 27–22 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 15 | vs Dolphins | W 28–15 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 16 | @ Lions | W 29–24 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 17 | @ Browns | L 6–13 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 18 | vs Ravens | W 26–24 | 36% | +64 |
| Wild Card | vs Texans | L 6–30 | 23% | −23 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.87 | +6.8 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.65 | +19.1 |
| Kicks | +0.32 | −3.9 |
| Injuries | +0.24 | +9.1 |
| Drops | +0.07 | +10.6 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.15 | −15.0 |