Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025
Colts at Steelers, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Colts 27–20, but the replays lean toward the Colts: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Before kickoff the Colts were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:03 left): the Colts fumbled and the Steelers recovered, worth 9 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Indianapolis Colts | 20 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Steelers very lucky · −61 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colts win 6, Steelers win 4.
- 1 IND 32 PIT 6
- 2 IND 39 PIT 24
- 3 IND 41 PIT 30
- 4 IND 23 PIT 15
- 5 IND 28 PIT 22
- 6 IND 24 PIT 22
- 7 IND 28 PIT 30
- 8 IND 28 PIT 33
- 9 IND 24 PIT 34
- 10 IND 3 PIT 20
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colts win 61% of them, Steelers 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colts by 17+ | 18.2% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 24.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.7% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 10.5% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 6.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 100% expected
- M. Badgley, 52 yds made · 62% expected
- C. Boswell, 46 yds made · 89% expected
- M. Badgley, 53 yds made · 61% expected
Penalties: Colts 5 for 53 yards, Steelers 8 for 46 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:17 | Illegal Formation on the Colts, 3 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% PIT +2.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Offensive Offside on the Colts (Alec Pierce), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:13 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 12 yards | +5% IND +1.3 pts |
| Q2 11:21 | Face Mask on the Colts (Neville Gallimore), 15 yards | +1% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 15 yards | +5% PIT +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:10 | False Start on the Steelers (Calvin Austin III), 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.2 pts |
| Q4 14:16 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (JT Tuimoloau), 15 yards | +1% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q4 14:16 | Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Steelers (Chris Boswell), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND 0.0 pts |
| Q4 11:39 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 10 yards | 0% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 6:51 | Illegal Formation on the Steelers (Jack Sawyer), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Jalen Ramsey), 5 yards | 0% IND +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:13 | Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:25 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.6 pts |
Colts penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:05 | The Colts converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +9% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:38 | The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +6% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:07 | The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +6% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:03 | The Colts fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% PIT | IND: Turnover |
| 5 | Q1 4:20 | The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +6% IND | PIT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 11:27 | The Colts fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PIT | IND: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 9:14 | The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +6% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 7:38 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- DeShon Elliott (PIT S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Chuck Clark (PIT DB), out · 0.3 pts
- Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colts 3% · Steelers 97%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.8 for the Colts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 13.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Colts 61% · Steelers 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Colts · 
Steelers
More from Week 9 2025
- Ravens at Dolphins BAL 28–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Falcons at Patriots NE 24–23 · replay 86% for the winner
- Panthers at Packers CAR 16–13 · replay 27% for the winner
- Bears at Bengals CHI 47–42 · replay 65% for the winner
- Broncos at Texans DEN 18–15 · replay 72% for the winner
- Chargers at Titans LAC 27–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions MIN 27–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- 49ers at Giants SF 34–24 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Raiders JAX 30–29 · replay 23% for the winner
- Saints at Rams LA 34–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills BUF 28–21 · replay 86% for the winner
- Seahawks at Commanders SEA 38–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 27–17 · replay 77% for the winner