luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Colts at Steelers, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Colts 27–20, but the Colts played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Colts were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:05 left): the Colts converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 20
Pittsburgh Steelers 27

November 2, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3.5

Luck index +78 Steelers very lucky · −78 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 8, Steelers win 2.

  1. 1 IND 31 PIT 0
  2. 2 IND 44 PIT 20
  3. 3 IND 44 PIT 26
  4. 4 IND 20 PIT 6
  5. 5 IND 27 PIT 16
  6. 6 IND 31 PIT 23
  7. 7 IND 24 PIT 19
  8. 8 IND 12 PIT 10
  9. 9 IND 17 PIT 21
  10. 10 IND 13 PIT 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 78% of them, Steelers 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+32.0%
Colts by 9–1619.6%
Colts by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation2.0%
Steelers by 1–811.8%
Steelers by 9–167.1%
Steelers by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 14.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • M. Badgley, 52 yds made · 62% expected
  • C. Boswell, 46 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Badgley, 53 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:05 The Colts converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:07 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:03 The Colts fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% PIT IND: Turnover
4 Q1 4:26 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% IND PIT: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 11:27 The Colts fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PIT IND: Turnover
6 Q2 9:14 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q2 7:38 The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q2 6:13 The Steelers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeShon Elliott (PIT S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chuck Clark (PIT DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 2% · Steelers 98%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
7.5 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 14.5
Replay with same day's form
Colts 78% · Steelers 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Colts · Steelers

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