luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Bears at Bengals, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Bengals 47–42, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bears win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 5.1 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): the Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 63 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 47
Cincinnati Bengals 42

November 2, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bears −3

Luck index +49 Bears lucky · −49 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 5, Bengals win 5.

  1. 1 CHI 51 CIN 27
  2. 2 CHI 50 CIN 35
  3. 3 CHI 51 CIN 42
  4. 4 CHI 38 CIN 34
  5. 5 CHI 47 CIN 45
  6. 6 CHI 41 CIN 42
  7. 7 CHI 44 CIN 49
  8. 8 CHI 47 CIN 56
  9. 9 CHI 19 CIN 33
  10. 10 CHI 17 CIN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 51% of them, Bengals 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+12.6%
Bears by 9–1613.8%
Bears by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation5.3%
Bengals by 1–821.6%
Bengals by 9–1613.7%
Bengals by 17+11.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 1.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • E. McPherson, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Santos, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Santos, 47 yds blocked · 78% expected
  • C. Santos, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • E. McPherson, 54 yds missed · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +21% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:50 The Bears converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +11% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:31 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +15% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 Q3 6:56 The Bengals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +14% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:02 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Bengals (Joe Flacco), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2499 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +17% CHI CIN: Missed field goal
6 Q4 3:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Nick McCloud), 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2266 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +11% CIN CIN: Turnover
7 Q4 1:43 The Bengals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOnside kick recovered by the BengalsSpecial teams +16% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:04 The Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +63% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.flacco · 4.7 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dalton Risner (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • D'Andre Swift (CHI RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Braxton Jones (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 78% · Bengals 22%

Final margin
Bears by 5
Luck in points
3.6 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Bears 51% · Bengals 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Bears · Bengals

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