Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025
Vikings at Lions, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Lions 27–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: drops alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Lions.
An off day for the Lions: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 40%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Lions were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:54 left): Illegal Contact on the Lions (Amik Robertson), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 27 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Vikings lucky · −40 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 6, Lions win 4.
- 1 MIN 41 DET 15
- 2 MIN 27 DET 10
- 3 MIN 26 DET 14
- 4 MIN 15 DET 6
- 5 MIN 24 DET 19
- 6 MIN 29 DET 27
- 7 MIN 6 DET 9
- 8 MIN 10 DET 17
- 9 MIN 23 DET 35
- 10 MIN 3 DET 21
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Lions
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 40%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for the Lions: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.09 | better by 0.01 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.08 | better by 0.05 |
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.19 | worse by 0.17 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.08 | worse by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 60% of them, Lions 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 14.4% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 26.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.7% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 20.2% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| Lions by 17+ | 6.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Reichard, 50 yds made · 74% expected
- J. Bates, 41 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Bates, 45 yds blocked · 84% expected
- W. Reichard, 20 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Vikings 7 for 56 yards, Lions 10 for 76 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:51 | False Start on the Lions (Sam LaPorta), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 0:38 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tai Felton), 6 yards | +2% DET +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:44 | False Start on the Vikings (Jalen Nailor), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Aidan Hutchinson), 15 yards | +7% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 3:13 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:35 | Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Jack Campbell), 15 yards | +5% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | Illegal Contact on the Lions (Amik Robertson), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +20% MIN +5.2 pts |
| Q3 13:51 | Defensive Offside on the Lions (Alim McNeill), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:46 | False Start on the Lions (Brock Wright), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:44 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +4% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 0:11 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Tavierre Thomas), 10 yards | +4% DET +0.6 pts |
| Q4 13:16 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Vikings (Tavierre Thomas), 15 yards | +7% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions (Jameson Williams), 10 yards | +7% MIN +1.2 pts |
| Q4 8:11 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jonathan Greenard), 5 yards · pre-snap | +11% DET +2.2 pts |
| Q4 7:09 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:37 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +3% DET +1.7 pts |
| Q4 4:33 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Alim McNeill), 1 yard | +1% MIN +0.5 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 9:43 | The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +10% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 1:54 | Illegal Contact on the Lions (Amik Robertson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2683 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +20% MIN | MIN: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 0:51 | The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +12% DET | MIN: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 2:07 | The Lions converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +10% DET | DET: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 10:37 | The Lions converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +10% DET | DET: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 8:11 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jonathan Greenard), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 3181 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +11% DET | DET: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 6:29 | J. Bates had a 45-yard field goal blockedKicks · 84% expected for him, 13 of 19 from 45+ before | +12% MIN | DET: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:41 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +10% MIN | MIN: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kerby Joseph (DET S), out · 0.8 pts
- D.J. Reed (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Marcus Davenport (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Carson Wentz (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.mccarthy · 2.6 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 19% · Lions 81%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 3
- Luck in points
- 7.3 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 4.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 60% · Lions 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Vikings · 
Lions
More from Week 9 2025
- Ravens at Dolphins BAL 28–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Falcons at Patriots NE 24–23 · replay 86% for the winner
- Panthers at Packers CAR 16–13 · replay 27% for the winner
- Bears at Bengals CHI 47–42 · replay 65% for the winner
- Broncos at Texans DEN 18–15 · replay 72% for the winner
- Colts at Steelers PIT 27–20 · replay 39% for the winner
- Chargers at Titans LAC 27–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- 49ers at Giants SF 34–24 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Raiders JAX 30–29 · replay 23% for the winner
- Saints at Rams LA 34–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills BUF 28–21 · replay 86% for the winner
- Seahawks at Commanders SEA 38–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 27–17 · replay 77% for the winner