luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Chargers at Titans, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Titans 27–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:25 left): Return touchdown by the Titans, worth 21 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 27
Tennessee Titans 20

November 2, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −10

Luck index +2 Chargers about even · −2 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 10, Titans win 0.

  1. 1 LAC 40 TEN 7
  2. 2 LAC 29 TEN 0
  3. 3 LAC 34 TEN 9
  4. 4 LAC 38 TEN 17
  5. 5 LAC 19 TEN 0
  6. 6 LAC 29 TEN 13
  7. 7 LAC 20 TEN 6
  8. 8 LAC 13 TEN 3
  9. 9 LAC 14 TEN 7
  10. 10 LAC 31 TEN 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 98% of them, Titans 2%. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+78.0%
Chargers by 9–1613.7%
Chargers by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation0.5%
Titans by 1–81.4%
Titans by 9–160.2%
Titans by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 7, without the luck Chargers by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. Dicker, 52 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Slye, 37 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 3 for 20 yards, Titans 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Julius Chestnut), 10 yards 0% LAC +0.9 pts
Q1 10:34 Face Mask on the Titans (Cedric Gray), 15 yards +4% LAC +1.5 pts
Q1 7:17 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.8 pts
Q1 2:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Teair Tart), 15 yards +4% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 12:50 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Elic Ayomanor), 10 yards +5% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 12:28 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.4 pts
Q2 8:37 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Chargers (Cameron Dicker), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN 0.0 pts
Q2 7:56 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LAC +0.6 pts
Q2 7:01 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +5% LAC +0.8 pts
Q3 0:21 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.6 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:25 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +21% TEN LAC: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:13 Return touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +9% TEN TEN: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 5:07 J. Slye made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 52 of 79 from 45+ before +7% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q2 3:52 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +8% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q2 3:09 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% LAC TEN: Punt
6 Q2 0:08 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 12:24 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 7:09 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +15% LAC TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Calvin Ridley (TEN WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Xavier Woods (TEN S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Oluwafemi Oladejo (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tarheeb Still (LAC CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Austin Deculus (LAC T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tony Jefferson (LAC S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (LAC G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Omarion Hampton (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (LAC DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 76% · Titans 24%

Final margin
Chargers by 7
Luck in points
4.3 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 98% · Titans 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Chargers · Titans

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