luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Chargers at Titans, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Titans 27–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 10 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:25 left): Return touchdown by the Titans, worth 22 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 27
Tennessee Titans 20

November 2, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −10

Luck index +2 Chargers about even · −2 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 10, Titans win 0.

  1. 1 LAC 38 TEN 3
  2. 2 LAC 30 TEN 3
  3. 3 LAC 24 TEN 0
  4. 4 LAC 24 TEN 3
  5. 5 LAC 27 TEN 10
  6. 6 LAC 24 TEN 10
  7. 7 LAC 15 TEN 3
  8. 8 LAC 23 TEN 13
  9. 9 LAC 16 TEN 9
  10. 10 LAC 17 TEN 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 98% of them, Titans 2%. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+77.2%
Chargers by 9–1614.8%
Chargers by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Titans by 1–81.4%
Titans by 9–160.3%
Titans by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 0.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. Dicker, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Slye, 37 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:25 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +22% TEN LAC: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:13 Return touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +9% TEN TEN: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 1:32 The Chargers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% LAC LAC: Field goal
4 Q2 3:09 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +8% LAC TEN: Punt
5 Q2 0:08 The Titans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 12:24 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 7:09 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +15% LAC TEN: Punt
8 Q3 1:00 The Chargers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Calvin Ridley (TEN WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Xavier Woods (TEN S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Oluwafemi Oladejo (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tarheeb Still (LAC CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Austin Deculus (LAC T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tony Jefferson (LAC S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (LAC G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Omarion Hampton (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (LAC DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 58% · Titans 42%

Final margin
Chargers by 7
Luck in points
7.1 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 98% · Titans 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Chargers · Titans

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