luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Saints at Rams, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Saints 34–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 10 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.7 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Rams were 85% favorites.

Final

New Orleans Saints 10
Los Angeles Rams 34

November 2, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −14

Luck index +4 Rams about even · −4 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 0, Rams win 10.

  1. 1 NO 13 LA 16
  2. 2 NO 10 LA 16
  3. 3 NO 23 LA 31
  4. 4 NO 13 LA 24
  5. 5 NO 7 LA 20
  6. 6 NO 10 LA 26
  7. 7 NO 7 LA 26
  8. 8 NO 7 LA 30
  9. 9 NO 14 LA 40
  10. 10 NO 10 LA 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 4% of them, Rams 96%. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+0.1%
Saints by 9–160.8%
Saints by 1–83.1%
Level after regulation0.3%
Rams by 1–89.8%
Rams by 9–1622.3%
Rams by 17+63.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 17.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Karty, 39 yds missed · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:44 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:22 The Rams converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +4% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:44 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% LA NO: Punt
4 Q1 2:33 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% LA NO: Punt
5 Q1 0:58 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% LA LA: Touchdown
6 Q2 14:18 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +3% NO LA: Touchdown
7 Q2 14:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Kool-Aid McKinstry), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1207 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q3 9:51 The Rams converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +4% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ahkello Witherspoon (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Darious Williams (LA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 24
Luck in points
6.9 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 17.1
Replay with same day's form
Saints 4% · Rams 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Saints · Rams

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