luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 season · final

Los Angeles Rams, 2025: game by game

The Rams went 12–5 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 14.3 wins. Luck cost them 2.3: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.5.

Every game

How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Texans W 14–9 72% +28
Week 2 @ Titans W 33–19 91% +9
Week 3 @ Eagles L 26–33 86% −86
Week 4 vs Colts W 27–20 87% +13
Week 5 vs 49ers L 23–26 74% −74
Week 6 @ Ravens W 17–3 83% +17
Week 7 vs Jaguars W 35–7 89% +11
Week 9 vs Saints W 34–10 98% +2
Week 10 @ 49ers W 42–26 90% +10
Week 11 vs Seahawks W 21–19 66% +34
Week 12 vs Buccaneers W 34–7 98% +2
Week 13 @ Panthers L 28–31 81% −81
Week 14 @ Cardinals W 45–17 100% 0
Week 15 vs Lions W 41–34 85% +15
Week 16 @ Seahawks L 37–38 83% −83
Week 17 @ Falcons L 24–27 57% −57
Week 18 vs Cardinals W 37–20 91% +9
Wild Card @ Panthers W 34–31 55% +45
Divisional round @ Bears W 20–17 34% +66
NFC Championship @ Seahawks L 27–31 65% −65

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Rams’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Injuries+0.40+17.3
Judgment calls+0.18+12.1
Rest+0.03+2.0
Drops−0.06+10.8
3rd & 4th downs−0.33−1.8
Fumble bounces−0.38+4.3
Kicks−0.91−16.3