luckadjusted

2025 season · final

Los Angeles Rams, 2025: game by game

The Rams went 12–5 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.7.

Every game

How often the Rams win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Texans W 14–9 58% +42
Week 2 @ Titans W 33–19 96% +4
Week 3 @ Eagles L 26–33 87% −87
Week 4 vs Colts W 27–20 86% +14
Week 5 vs 49ers L 23–26 52% −52
Week 6 @ Ravens W 17–3 71% +29
Week 7 @ Jaguars W 35–7 95% +5
Week 9 vs Saints W 34–10 96% +4
Week 10 @ 49ers W 42–26 90% +10
Week 11 vs Seahawks W 21–19 48% +52
Week 12 vs Buccaneers W 34–7 95% +5
Week 13 @ Panthers L 28–31 87% −87
Week 14 @ Cardinals W 45–17 99% +1
Week 15 vs Lions W 41–34 84% +16
Week 16 @ Seahawks L 37–38 71% −71
Week 17 @ Falcons L 24–27 64% −64
Week 18 vs Cardinals W 37–20 92% +8
Wild Card @ Panthers W 34–31 54% +46
Divisional round @ Bears W 20–17 34% +66
NFC Championship @ Seahawks L 27–31 78% −78

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Rams’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+24.6+1.45
Injuries+23.6+1.39
Drops+7.3+0.43
Fumble bounces+3.1+0.19
Rest+2.0+0.12
3rd & 4th downs−0.3−0.02
Kicks−15.8−0.93