NFC Championship 2025 · January 25, 2026
Rams at Seahawks, NFC Championship 2025: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Rams 31–27, but the replays lean toward the Rams: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:21 left): C. Parkinson dropped a catchable pass, worth 13 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 27 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +65 Seahawks very lucky · −65 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 6, Seahawks win 4.
- 1 LA 48 SEA 24
- 2 LA 34 SEA 17
- 3 LA 26 SEA 13
- 4 LA 21 SEA 12
- 5 LA 40 SEA 34
- 6 LA 19 SEA 17
- 7 LA 31 SEA 34
- 8 LA 21 SEA 27
- 9 LA 17 SEA 29
- 10 LA 14 SEA 33
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 65% of them, Seahawks 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 18.4% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 25.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 9.8% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 5.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Mevis, 44 yds made · 84% expected
- J. Myers, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- H. Mevis, 50 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Rams 4 for 30 yards, Seahawks 6 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:13 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +2% LA +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:41 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +1% LA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:52 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams (Omar Speights), 10 yards | +1% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:19 | Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards | 0% SEA +0.1 pts |
| Q3 3:22 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams, 10 yards | +2% SEA +1.2 pts |
| Q3 2:20 | Taunting on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yards | +3% LA +1.4 pts |
| Q4 12:49 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Jared Verse), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SEA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:32 | Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Boye Mafe), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:17 | Defensive Holding on the Rams (Cobie Durant), 5 yards | +2% SEA +0.5 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:16 | H. Mevis made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +6% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 12:17 | The Rams fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% SEA | LA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:23 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:20 | The Rams got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsTaunting on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 27 flags in 4177 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +7% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 1:08 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 8:21 | C. Parkinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 150 catchable balls before this | +13% SEA | LA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 8:16 | The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +7% LA | LA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 5:06 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +9% SEA | LA: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 49% · Seahawks 51%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 4
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 65% · Seahawks 35% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2025 games · 
Rams · 
Seahawks
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