NFC Championship 2025 · January 25, 2026
Rams at Seahawks, NFC Championship 2025: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Rams 31–27, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 4.2 points to the Seahawks.
The Seahawks won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:21 left): C. Parkinson dropped a catchable pass, worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 27 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +78 Seahawks very lucky · −78 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 8, Seahawks win 2.
- 1 LA 48 SEA 20
- 2 LA 38 SEA 16
- 3 LA 39 SEA 21
- 4 LA 27 SEA 13
- 5 LA 31 SEA 21
- 6 LA 31 SEA 24
- 7 LA 24 SEA 20
- 8 LA 27 SEA 26
- 9 LA 21 SEA 24
- 10 LA 16 SEA 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Seahawks won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams offenseEPA per play gained | +0.32 | +0.17 | better by 0.15 |
| Rams defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.09 | worse by 0.12 |
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | +0.21 | +0.14 | better by 0.08 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.32 | +0.03 | worse by 0.29 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 78% of them, Seahawks 22%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 31.6% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 24.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 2.7% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Seahawks by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 1.0.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Mevis, 44 yds made · 83% expected
- J. Myers, 27 yds made · 99% expected
- H. Mevis, 50 yds made · 74% expected
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:51 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +13% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 12:17 | The Rams fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% SEA | LA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:23 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:20 | The Rams got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsTaunting on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 27 flags in 4177 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +7% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 1:08 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 8:21 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedC. Parkinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 150 catchable balls before this | +15% SEA | LA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 8:16 | The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +11% LA | LA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 5:06 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +9% SEA | LA: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 43% · Seahawks 57%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 4
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 78% · Seahawks 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2025 games · 
Rams · 
Seahawks
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