luckadjusted

AFC Championship 2025 · January 25, 2026

Patriots at Broncos, AFC Championship 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Broncos 10–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:59 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 25 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 10
Denver Broncos 7

January 25, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Patriots −3.5

Luck index +19 Patriots about even · −19 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 8, Broncos win 2.

  1. 1 NE 36 DEN 9
  2. 2 NE 27 DEN 7
  3. 3 NE 19 DEN 3
  4. 4 NE 23 DEN 10
  5. 5 NE 20 DEN 9
  6. 6 NE 13 DEN 6
  7. 7 NE 19 DEN 14
  8. 8 NE 16 DEN 13
  9. 9 NE 20 DEN 24
  10. 10 NE 10 DEN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 81% of them, Broncos 19%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+30.7%
Patriots by 9–1622.1%
Patriots by 1–826.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Broncos by 1–811.2%
Broncos by 9–165.6%
Broncos by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 54 yds missed · 57% expected
  • A. Borregales, 63 yds missed · 45% expected
  • A. Borregales, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Borregales, 46 yds missed · 73% expected
  • W. Lutz, 45 yds blocked · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:49 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +16% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:59 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +25% NE DEN: Punt
3 Q2 0:09 The Patriots converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +8% NE NE: Missed field goal
4 Q2 0:01 A. Borregales missed 63-yard field goalKicks · 45% expected for him, 6 of 8 from 45+ before +13% DEN NE: Field goal
5 Q3 10:22 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% NE NE: Field goal
6 Q4 12:20 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +11% DEN NE: Punt
7 Q4 4:46 W. Lutz had a 45-yard field goal blockedKicks · 73% expected for him, 42 of 62 from 45+ before +19% NE DEN: Turnover
8 Q4 2:18 The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% NE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bo Nix (DEN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.stidham · 4.1 pts
  • Brandon Jones (DEN S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 42% · Broncos 58%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
8.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 81% · Broncos 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

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