2025 season · final
New England Patriots, 2025: game by game
The Patriots went 14–3 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.1 wins. Luck added 1.9: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.
Playoffs: 3–1, replay wins 3.4.
Every game
How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Raiders | L 13–20 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 2 | @ Dolphins | W 33–27 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 3 | vs Steelers | L 14–21 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 4 | vs Panthers | W 42–13 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 5 | @ Bills | W 23–20 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 6 | @ Saints | W 25–19 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 7 | @ Titans | W 31–13 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 8 | vs Browns | W 32–13 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 9 | vs Falcons | W 24–23 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 10 | @ Buccaneers | W 28–23 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 11 | vs Jets | W 27–14 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 12 | @ Bengals | W 26–20 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 13 | vs Giants | W 33–15 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 15 | vs Bills | L 31–35 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 16 | @ Ravens | W 28–24 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 17 | @ Jets | W 42–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 18 | vs Dolphins | W 38–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Wild Card | vs Chargers | W 16–3 | 92% | +8 |
| Divisional round | vs Texans | W 28–16 | 91% | +9 |
| AFC Championship | @ Broncos | W 10–7 | 84% | +16 |
| Super Bowl | vs Seahawks | L 13–29 | 68% | −68 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.63 | +18.4 |
| Drops | +0.39 | +5.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.35 | +17.0 |
| Injuries | +0.24 | +12.8 |
| Judgment calls | +0.11 | −0.2 |
| Kicks | −0.24 | −8.1 |