2025 season · final
New England Patriots, 2025: game by game
The Patriots went 14–3 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.0 wins. Luck added 2.0: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.
Playoffs: 3–1, replay wins 3.3.
Every game
How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Raiders | L 13–20 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 2 | @ Dolphins | W 33–27 | 28% | +72 |
| Week 3 | vs Steelers | L 14–21 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 4 | vs Panthers | W 42–13 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 5 | @ Bills | W 23–20 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 6 | @ Saints | W 25–19 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 7 | @ Titans | W 31–13 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 8 | vs Browns | W 32–13 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 9 | vs Falcons | W 24–23 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 10 | @ Buccaneers | W 28–23 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 11 | vs Jets | W 27–14 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 12 | @ Bengals | W 26–20 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 13 | vs Giants | W 33–15 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 15 | vs Bills | L 31–35 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 16 | @ Ravens | W 28–24 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 17 | @ Jets | W 42–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 18 | vs Dolphins | W 38–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Wild Card | vs Chargers | W 16–3 | 96% | +4 |
| Divisional round | vs Texans | W 28–16 | 88% | +12 |
| AFC Championship | @ Broncos | W 10–7 | 81% | +19 |
| Super Bowl | vs Seahawks | L 13–29 | 70% | −70 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +16.3 | +0.96 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +16.1 | +0.95 |
| Fumble bounces | +14.2 | +0.83 |
| Drops | +8.1 | +0.48 |
| Rest | +0.4 | +0.02 |
| Judgment calls | −2.3 | −0.13 |
| Kicks | −7.4 | −0.43 |