luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Divisional round 2025 · January 18, 2026

Texans at Patriots, Divisional round 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Texans 28–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Texans: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:41 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 31 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Houston Texans 16
New England Patriots 28

January 18, 2026 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +9 Patriots about even · −9 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 24 NE 16
  2. 2 HOU 17 NE 20
  3. 3 HOU 24 NE 30
  4. 4 HOU 21 NE 30
  5. 5 HOU 13 NE 26
  6. 6 HOU 7 NE 23
  7. 7 HOU 19 NE 38
  8. 8 HOU 9 NE 32
  9. 9 HOU 6 NE 34
  10. 10 HOU 6 NE 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Texans

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

31 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Texans offenseEPA per play gained +0.00 +0.04 worse by 0.04
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed −0.13 +0.02 better by 0.14
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained −0.13 +0.17 worse by 0.30
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed +0.00 +0.10 better by 0.10

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 9% of them, Patriots 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.7%
Texans by 9–161.5%
Texans by 1–86.0%
Level after regulation0.9%
Patriots by 1–811.9%
Patriots by 9–1621.2%
Patriots by 17+57.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 12, without the luck Patriots by 10.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 32 yards, Patriots 3 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:07 False Start on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.6 pts
Q1 7:13 Face Mask on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 7 yards +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q1 5:39 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% NE +2.9 pts
Q2 3:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 20 yards +3% HOU +1.3 pts
Q2 3:02 False Start on the Texans (Cade Stover), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q3 2:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 21 yards +6% HOU +2.0 pts
Q4 14:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 17 yards +7% NE +2.3 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:47 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q1 5:39 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +6% NE NE: Punt
3 Q1 0:58 The Patriots fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU NE: Punt
4 Q2 10:41 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +31% NE HOU: Turnover
5 Q2 8:37 The Texans were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +9% NE HOU: Punt
6 Q2 0:02 The Patriots were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +9% HOU NE: Turnover
7 Q3 2:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 51 flags in 6620 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% HOU HOU: Field goal
8 Q4 14:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 3522 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mack Hollins (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Trent Brown (HOU T), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 4% · Patriots 96%

Final margin
Patriots by 12
Luck in points
1.2 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Texans 9% · Patriots 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2025 games · Texans · Patriots

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