luckadjusted

Divisional round 2025 · January 18, 2026

Rams at Bears, Divisional round 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Bears 20–17, but the Bears played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 4.2 points to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:27 left): the Bears converted 4th & 4, worth 28 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Rams 20
Chicago Bears 17

January 18, 2026 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Rams −3.5

Luck index +66 Rams very lucky · −66 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 3, Bears win 7.

  1. 1 LA 26 CHI 10
  2. 2 LA 23 CHI 15
  3. 3 LA 21 CHI 19
  4. 4 LA 22 CHI 24
  5. 5 LA 24 CHI 27
  6. 6 LA 30 CHI 37
  7. 7 LA 19 CHI 29
  8. 8 LA 26 CHI 41
  9. 9 LA 14 CHI 33
  10. 10 LA 9 CHI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 34% of them, Bears 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+6.3%
Rams by 9–169.5%
Rams by 1–817.6%
Level after regulation2.3%
Bears by 1–824.7%
Bears by 9–1618.9%
Bears by 17+20.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 7.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • H. Mevis, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • H. Mevis, 42 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:02 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% LA CHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 15:00 The Bears converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +14% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q4 3:50 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +13% LA CHI: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 0:27 The Bears converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +28% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 QOT 13:27 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +19% CHI LA: Punt
6 QOT 8:04 The Bears converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +23% CHI CHI: Turnover
7 QOT 4:54 The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +27% LA LA: Field goal
8 QOT 3:24 H. Mevis made 42-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +17% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ozzy Trapilo (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 15% · Bears 85%

Final margin
Rams by 3
Luck in points
10.0 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Rams 34% · Bears 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2025 games · Rams · Bears

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